연속적인 극한호우사상의 발생을 가정한 거대홍수모의
Mega Flood Simulation Assuming Successive Extreme Rainfall Events
0
조회
0
다운로드
6
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
최근 연속적인 태풍에 의한 일련의 극한 호우 사상으로 홍수가 발생하였고, 이로 인해 인명과 막대한 재산피해가 발생하였다. 본 연구에서는 연속 호우 사상으로 인해 발생한 극한홍수를 거대홍수라고 정의하고, 일정 시간 간격으로 극한 호우 사상이연속적으로 발생 될 수 있음을 가정하여 가상의 거대홍수 시나리오를 구성하였다. 최소 무강우 시간 결정(Inter Event Time Definition, IETD)방법을 사용하여 연속적인 강우의 시간 간격을 결정하였으며, IETD에 의해 산정된 시간 간격 안에서 호우사상을 연속적으로 발생시켜 평창강 유역을 대상으로 거대홍수를 모의하였다. 즉, (1) 기록된 극한 호우 사상의 연속적인발생 (2) 기왕 자료를 기반으로 빈도해석에 의해 산정된 설계 호우 사상의 연속적인 발생을 가정하여 거대홍수를 모의하였다. 연속 호우 사상으로 인한 거대홍수는 단일 호우 사상으로 인한 일반 홍수에 비해 6∼17%의 홍수량이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 앞의 호우 사상으로 인한 홍수량에 비해 뒤에 오는 호우로 인한 홍수량의 증가는 많지 않지만, 연속적인 호우는 두 번의홍수피해를 가져오므로 가상의 거대홍수로 인한 홍수 피해는 매우 클 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 본 연구와 같이 가상의 강우시나리오를 통해 예상하지 못한 연속적인 홍수 재해와 같은 비상 상황에 대비할 방안을 마련할 필요가 있을 것으로 사료된다.
Abstract
In recent, the series of extreme storm events were occurred by those continuous typhoons and the severe flood damages due to the loss of life and the destruction of property were involved. In this study, we call Mega flood for the Extreme flood occurred by these successive storm events and so we can have a hypothetical Mega flood by assuming that a extreme event can be successively occurred with a certain time interval. Inter Event Time Definition (IETD) method was used to determine the time interval between continuous events in order to simulate Mega flood. Therefore, the continuous extreme rainfall events are determined with IETD then Mega flood is simulated by the consecutive events : (1) consecutive occurrence of two historical extreme events, (2) consecutive occurrence of two design events obtained by the frequency analysis based on the historical data. We have shown that Mega floods by continuous extreme rainfall events were increased by 6-17% when we compared to typical flood by a single event. We can expect that flood damage caused by Mega flood leads to much greater than damage driven by a single rainfall event. The second increase in the flood caused by heavy rain is not much compared to the first flood caused by heavy rain. But Continuous heavy rain brings the two times of flood damage. Therefore, flood damage caused by the virtual Mega flood of is judged to be very large. Here we used the hypothetical rainfall events which can occur Mega floods and this could be used for preparing for unexpected flood disaster by simulating Mega floods defined in this study.
참고문헌 (27)
- Adams, BJ, "Urban stormwater management planning with analytical probabilistic models" (2000), John Wiley & Sons, INC
- Adams, BJ, "Meteorological data analysis for drainage system design", J. of environmental Engineering, 112(5), pp.827~848 (1986)
- Ahn HW, "Numerical Simulation of Urban Flash Flood Experiments Using Adaptive Mesh Refinement and Cut Cell Method", J. of Korea Water Resources Association, 44(7), pp.511~522 (2001)
- 안재황, "이상홍수에 따른 남한강 유역의 홍수저감대책 분석", 한국방재학회논문집, 11(5), pp.265~272 (2011), 한국방재학회
- Choi CW, "Flood Vulnerability Analysis in the South Han River Basin During Abnormal Flood", Korean Society of Civil Engineers Conference, pp.620~623 (2009), Korean Society of Civil Engineers
- 최창원, "이상홍수를 고려한 퍼지 최적 저수지 운영", 대한토목학회 논문집B, 32(4), pp.221~232 (2012), 대한토목학회[DOI]
- Fryirs, K, "Morphological and historical resilience to catastrophic flooding: The case of Lockyer Creek, SE Queensland, Australia", Geomorphology, 241, pp.55~71 (2015)
- Han GY, "Comparison Study on One- and Two-Dimensional Models for Extreme Flood Routing", Korean Society of Civil Engineers Conference, 3(6), pp.1589~1592 (2002), Korean Society of Civil Engineers
- Han GY, "Emergency Action Plan against Extreme Flood from Dam", Levee Break, 2003, 2348~2351[DOI]
- Hong, CC, "Roles of European blocking and tropical‐extratropical interaction in the 2010 Pakistan flooding", Geophysical Research Letters, 38(13) (2011)
- Jang DW, "A Development of GIS based Excess Flood Protection System - Using Decision Support methods", Korean Society of Civil Engineers Conference, pp.630~634 (2009), Korean Society of Civil Engineers
- Joo JG, "A Development of Rainfall Time Distribution Model for Urban Watersheds", Master, pp.2005
- 강형식, "극한홍수 대응을 위한 횡적 하천공간의 홍수위 저감효과 분석", 한국방재학회논문집, 11(6), pp.217~226 (2011), 한국방재학회
- Pyeongchang River Master Plan, "Gangwon Province", Gangwon Province, ~ (2012)
- Kwon, JH, "Rainfall Analysis to Estimate the Amount of Non-point Sourse Pollution", Master, pp.2003
- Larson, LW, "The great USA flood of 1993", IAHS Publications-Series of Proceedings and Reports-Intern Assoc Hydrological Sciences, 239, pp.13~20 (1997)
- Lecce, SA, "Floodplain sedimentation during an extreme flood: the 1999 flood on the Tar River, eastern North Carolina", Physical Geography, 25(4), pp.334~346 (2004)
- Matthews, WJ, "Two Catastrophic Floods: Similarities and Differences in Effects on an Ozark Stream Fish Community", Copeia, 4, pp.682~693 (2014)
- Development of Evaluation Technique on the Abnormal Flood, "Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport", Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, ~ (2006)
- Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs(MLTMA), "Water Vision 2020", Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, ~ (2011)
- Ministry of Public Safety and Security, "Disasters Yearbooks 2014", Ministry of Public Safety and Security, ~ (2015)
- Mudelsee, M, "No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe", Nature, 425(6954), pp.166~169 (2003)
- Nix, SJ, "Urban stormwater modeling and simulation" (1994), CRC Press
- Porfiriev, BN, "Economic consequences of the 2013catastrophic flood in the Far East", Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 85(1), pp.40~48 (2015)
- Romanescu, G, "Causes and effects of the catastrophic flooding on the Siret River (Romania) in July–August 2008", Natural hazards, 69(3), pp.1351~1367 (2013)
- Smith, JA, "The regional hydrology of extreme floods in an urbanizing drainage basin", J. of Hydrometeorology, 3(3), pp.267~282 (2002)
- Smith, K, "Floods: physical processes and human impacts" (1998), John Wiley and Sons Ltd