시황 변동에 따른 선박투자패턴 분석에 관한 연구

Abstract

Due to shipping recession triggered by the global financial crisis, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily for the shipping industry, fell from 10,000 points before and the end of 2007 to 600 points at the end of 2008. At the end of May 2015, the BDI stood at 580 points. The Korea Maritime Institute’s Business Survey Index (BSI) for the shipping industry stands at 66 points, indicating that the economic outlook for the industry is not bright. Investigations have revealed that dry bulk cargo, containers, and tankers is 61 points, 88 points, and 67 points respectively. Compared to the previous month, profitability index, cash flow index, and sales index declined th 82%, 77%, and 74%, respectively. Experts insist that the situation can be assuaged by strengthening financial stability through expanded government support, increasing vessel size, and securing strategic alliances. Despite these claims, government interest in the shipping industry, and hence their policy priorities are low. In addition, the policy focuses on developing the cruise industry. Recently, the global shipping industry has undergone environmental and structural changes, regarding the pressure to minimize air pollution, the severe slowdown in the recovery of market indices, and worsening returns due to commercial vessel’ oversupply. In this era of slow growth and long-term depression, enlarging fleets and companies is the most appropriate strategy for realizing scale economy. Yet, large Korean companies like Korealines, Hanjin Shipping, Hyundai Merchant Marine, and STX Pan Ocean, have experienced a liquidity crisis. According to Stopford(2009), the end of the depression should results in a boom for the industry, but the recent depression has impacted the business considerably. This study analyzes shipping investment behavior patterns (SIBPs) and suggests several managerial implications to help improve shipping vessel’s liquidity. The results of the study show that, with the exception of short sea shipping companies and tramp, most lines scored high ship investment pattern. The result for 2013 indicates that all liners, except some mega liners, experienced a declining trend compared to last year, thus, the SIBP is stable. The results thus provide several managerial implications. There is a need to 1) introduce a preliminary early warning system, 2) undertake scientific decision-making to improve SIBPs, 3) strengthen the flexibility of decision-making, and 4) adopt holistic thinking while considering all the internal factors contributing to the crisis.