Measuring Conjectural Variations Competitive Nature of the Japanese domestic airline market: Analysis of Competitive nature of the market after the 1986 policy change
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Abstract
This study calculates conjectural variations in the Japanese domestic passenger air transport market composed of three major carriers between 1980 and 2002 and analyzes its competitive nature after the 1986 policy change. Three major research findings have been drawn. First, in 1986, the Japanese Ministry of Transport abolished market segregation among three major carriers and implemented gradual deregulation measures. The measures ranged from the introduction of double and triple track policy of 1986 to the abolishment of price regulation and demand-supply control regulation in 2000. Market concentration ratio decreased and the number of routes where multiple carriers would serve increased considerably. Second, most conjectural variations at the industry level after 1986 are between -0.1 and +0.1, implying that the Japanese domestic airline market is characterized by Cournot competition or competition which is slightly tougher than Cournot competition. Finally, according to conjectural variations, competition has been intensified following the introduction of free market system into the Japanese domestic airline market in 2000.
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