15세기 후반 기후특성의 비교사적 고찰 ― 『조선왕조실록』 기후 관련 기록 신빙성 검토의 한 사례

Abstract

This study was conducted in order to confirm whether The Annals of the Choson Dynasty is a reliable material for research on weather characteristics. For this purpose, we compared weather phenomenawith those in China and Japan in the long period. From the results, it was found that The Annals of the Choson Dynasty is a useful material at least to grasp macroscopic trends in weather phenomena. The record of portents has been somewhat exaggerated. Since Portents were considered as Heaven's signs, the rulers have to express their sincere efforts to rectify any wrongs. So we should carefully examine the data, and obtain meaningful statistics Based on this assumption, we analyzed weather characteristics in the second half of the 15th century. the climate was not changed violently in this period. This suggests that the climate was relatively stable in this period. As a consequence of stable weather, famine decreased markedly. However, this was not only because of stable climate but also because of the government’s active efforts to reduce disasters. As droughts and floods were not frequent, social costs for recovery from disasters also decreased considerably and the saved money could be invested in the construction of social safety nets for the prevention of disasters. Such efforts included the government’s active construction of embankments, introduction of seeds suitable for reclaimed lands, and inspiration of the consciousness of forceful farming enduring natural disasters such as floods. As a result, abnormal weathers such as droughts did not lead directly to bad harvests.