조선왕조실록 가뭄 기록과 그 실제 -세종 대(1418~1450)를 중심으로

Abstract

Generally speaking, in order to have a general idea of patterns of the climate and the weather in a region, long term records are necessary. In this respect, the climate and the weather records in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty are receiving new attention nowadays. However, the climate and the weather records in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty per se seem not to have higher levels of statistical reliability. It's mainly because the purpose of the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty were not written for the pure concerns over objective natural phenomenon. The climate and the weather records in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty were originated mainly from the concerns of farming. This paper focuses on droughts. It's because droughts were most crucial factor which made a big impact on the results of farming. The analysis period of this paper is the period of king Sejong regime(1418~1450). In result of the analysis of this paper, during this period, about 16%-it means 5 years-were probable in droughts. In case of these 5 years, their rain calling ceremony were held in June many times. June was the last period that the result of rice farming of the year was decided. By analyzing these 5 years, it was proved that there were really serious droughts in the 9th and 18th year of king Sejong regime, that bad harvest of the latter year was more serious than any other year for king Sejong regime. These facts could be predicted by the rainfall analysis during farming periods, and disaster managements of government after the harvest proved that the predictions had been correct. Through these predictions and verification, we can understand that the climate and the weather records in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty can be meaningful in terms of the statistical reliability.