조선왕조실록 가뭄 현상의 기록과 실제 ― 세종즉위년~세종18년을 중심으로

Abstract

Generally speaking, in order to understand the patterns of the climate and the weather in a region, long term records are necessary. In this respect, the climate and the weather records in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty are very important. However, the climate and the weather records in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty per se seem not to have statistical objectivity. It's because the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty were not written for the pure concerns over objective climate and weather phenomenon. The climate and the weather records in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty were originated from the concerns of cultivation. This paper focuses on droughts. It's because droughts are most crucial factor which affects the results of cultivation. The analysis period of this paper is the former 18 years of King Sejong regime. In result of the analysis of this paper, during this period, the first, 9th, 17th, and 18th year were probable in droughts. In case of these 4 years, their rain calling ceremony were held in June. June was the last period that the result of rice cultivation was decided. By analyzing these 4 years, it was proved that there were really serious droughts in the 9th and 18th year of king Sejong regime, that bad harvest of the latter year was more serious than the former year. These facts could be predicted by the rainfall analysis during cultivating periods, and disaster managements of government after the harvest proved the predictions correct. Through these predictions and these verification, we can understand that the climate and the weather records in the Annals of the Joseon Dynasty can be meaningful by some analytical methods.