아시아인프라투자은행(AIIB) 가입 및 미가입 요인 분석: 한국, 영국, 미국, 일본 사례를 중심으로
An Analysis of Factors Behind Joining or Not Joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): Cases of the Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Japan
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이 논문은 중국의 주도로 설립되어 2016년 1월에 공식 출범한 아시아인프라투자은행(AIIB)에 한국과 영국이 창립회원국으로 가입한 요인들과 미국과 일본이 현재까지 가입하지 않은 요인들을 분석하고 국제레짐이론의 시각에서 설명하는데 목적이 있다. 분석의 결과로서 첫째, 한국과 영국이 미국의 반대에도 불구하고 AIIB에 가입한 주요 요인은 신자유주의적 제도주의에서 설명하듯이 AIIB가입을 통해 경제적 상호 이익을 얻을 수 있다고 판단했기 때문이었고, 또한 신현실주의에서 예상하듯이 아시아 금융체제에서의 자국의 상대적 지위 상승에 대한 기대 요인이 동시에 작용하였기 때문이었다. 둘째, 미국이 AIIB에 가입하지 않은 근본적 요인은 신현실주의 시각에서 예상하듯이 World Bank, ADB, IMF 등 국제금융체제에서 미국이 향유하던 지배적인 영향력이 약화됨으로써 자국의 상대적 지위가 저하될 것을 우려하였기 때문이었다. 셋째, 일본이 가입하지 않은 주요 요인은 아시아 금융체제에서 자국이 주도하는 ADB의 상대적 영향력과 위상이 저하될 수 있다고 예상하였기 때문인데 이는 신현실주의 시각을 통해 적절히 설명이 된다. 반면에 신자유주의적 제도주의는 미국과 일본이 가입을 지속적으로 거부해온 요인들을 적절히 설명하지 못한다.
Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the factors for the Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which was founded under the leadership of China and officially launched in January 2016, and the factors for the United States and Japan not to join it so far. And it explains them from the perspective of international regime theory. As a result of the analysis, first, the main reason for Korea and the United Kingdom to join the AIIB, despite opposition from the United States, was that they took into consideration mutual economic benefits resulting from their participation in the AIIB, as properly explained by neo-liberalism. Another reason was because they anticipated the rise of their relative influence and position in the Asian financial system, as expected by neo-realism. Second, the underlying factor for the United States not to join the AIIB was that its existing dominant influence in the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the IMF would be so undermined that its relative position in the international financial system could be reduced. Third, the main reason for Japan not to join was that it expected the relative cost of undermining its leading position in ADB for the Asian financial system, as properly explained by neo-realism. Finally, neo-liberalism does not properly explain the reasons for the United States or Japanese refusal to accede to the AIIB.
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