베트남의 금융시장 유동성과 수출상품 구조변화
Financial Market Liquidity and Structural Changes of Export Products in Vietnam
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본 연구는 2010년부터 2021년까지의 분기자료를 활용하여 베트남의 금융시장 유동성이 수출상품 구조변화에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였으며, 이때 수출상품을 총 상품과 기본재, 제조업 상품으로 구분하여 금융시장 유동성의 영향을 세분화하여 살펴보았다. 실증분석 결과, 세 가지 수출상품 구조변화에 금융시장 유동성과 외국인 직접투자가 단기적으로 유의한 영향을 미치지 못하는 반면, 장기적으로 금융시장 유동성과 외국인 직접투자가 제조업을 중심으로 한 수출상품 구조변화에 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과를 바탕으로 베트남은 지속가능한 성장을 위해 금융시장과 수출의 양적 발전뿐만 아니라 금융시장 유동성 및 수출상품의 구조적 변화와 같은 질적 발전을 도모해야 할 것이며, 이를 위해 자원배분의 효율성을 향상시킬 수 있는 체계적인 금융시스템 구축과 풍부한 유동성을 바탕으로 한 고부가가치 산업 육성 방안 마련의 노력이 강구되어야 할 것이다.
Abstract
This study empirically analyzed the effect of Vietnam’s financial market liquidity on structural changes of export products using quarterly data from 2010 to 2021. In this process, export products were divided into total products, primary products, and manufactured products to examine the effects of financial market liquidity in detail. As a result of empirical analysis, financial market liquidity and foreign direct investment did not have a significant short-term effect on the structural changes of the three export products. However, it was found that financial market liquidity and foreign direct investment contribute to structural changes in total export products and manufactured export products in the long term. Based on these analysis results, Vietnam should promote qualitative development such as financial market liquidity and structural change of export products as well as quantitative development of financial markets and exports for sustainable growth. In addition, for qualitative development, the Vietnamese government will need to establish a systematic financial system that can improve the efficiency of resource allocation, and should come up with a plan to foster high value-added industries based on abundant liquidity.
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