The Value of Quantitative Analysis of Diplomatic Rhetoric in International Political Economy Research - An Example of Chinese Diplomatic Rhetoric Toward South Korea
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Diplomatic rhetoric is an essential means of communication between countries and is important in studying international political economy. This paper uses quantitative analysis of diplomatic rhetoric to investigate and interpret the phenomena and issues of international political economy. Taking Chinese diplomatic rhetoric toward South Korea as an example, this paper reveals interesting political economy phenomena in the political and economic exchanges between China and South Korea. Firstly, in its diplomacy with Korea, the Chinese government presents different foreign policy orientations toward South Korea at different times, based on the principle of the rational judgment of national interests. The preference for development interests and the preference for survival interests, in particular, are opposed. Secondly, this study discovers a link between China's survival interest preference and the growth rate of certain import and export commodity categories. National policy preferences are highly correlated with commodities with high substitutability and low correlated with commodities that are difficult to substitute in economic and trade interactions. Finally, this article indicates that the diplomatic rhetoric of China toward South Korea can predict the relationship score between China and South Korea using the regression model developed from the diplomatic rhetoric data. In other words, the China-South Korea relationship score is primarily determined by the Chinese government's choices for security-related foreign policy, and it is not directly impacted by its preferences for development-related foreign policy. Through the example analysis, this paper argues that quantitative analysis of diplomatic rhetoric is not only operable but also replicable. Therefore, it has generalizable relevance in the study of international political economy.
Abstract
Diplomatic rhetoric is an essential means of communication between countries and is important in studying international political economy. This paper uses quantitative analysis of diplomatic rhetoric to investigate and interpret the phenomena and issues of international political economy. Taking Chinese diplomatic rhetoric toward South Korea as an example, this paper reveals interesting political economy phenomena in the political and economic exchanges between China and South Korea. Firstly, in its diplomacy with Korea, the Chinese government presents different foreign policy orientations toward South Korea at different times, based on the principle of the rational judgment of national interests. The preference for development interests and the preference for survival interests, in particular, are opposed. Secondly, this study discovers a link between China's survival interest preference and the growth rate of certain import and export commodity categories. National policy preferences are highly correlated with commodities with high substitutability and low correlated with commodities that are difficult to substitute in economic and trade interactions. Finally, this article indicates that the diplomatic rhetoric of China toward South Korea can predict the relationship score between China and South Korea using the regression model developed from the diplomatic rhetoric data. In other words, the China-South Korea relationship score is primarily determined by the Chinese government's choices for security-related foreign policy, and it is not directly impacted by its preferences for development-related foreign policy. Through the example analysis, this paper argues that quantitative analysis of diplomatic rhetoric is not only operable but also replicable. Therefore, it has generalizable relevance in the study of international political economy.
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