암수범죄 추정 : 미신고율을 활용한 수학적 모형
Estimating dark figure: Mathematical model utilizing crime-unreporting rate
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초록
범죄 현황 파악에 활용되는 공식범죄통계는 ‘암수범죄’라는 근원적 문제를 안고 있다. 본 연구는 암수범죄의 규모를 추정하기 위해 첫째, 암수범죄와 미신고 변수에 대한 문헌 연구를 실시하였고, 둘째, 범죄유형에 따른 암수범죄 발생 요인 찾고, 이를 활용하여 “암수지수(DFI)”를 산출하였으며, 셋째, 암수지수를 이용하여 수학적으로 범죄규모를 산출(암수범죄 추정)하였다. 데이터를 수집하기 위해 본 연구는 multistage cluster sampling을 통하여 900명의 표본을 추출하였다. 또한, convenience sampling을 통하여 300명의 표본을 대상으로 설문을 실시하였으며 최종 표본에는 733 명의 응답이 포함되었다. 절도의 경우, 신고 경향이 높을 때, 암수 지수(DFI)는 1.6643으로 공식통계 보다 대략 1.665배가 큰 값이 실제 범죄량으로 추정되었다. 반대로, 신고 경향이 낮은 경우(미신고율이 높을 경우) 암수지수는 28.665로 나타났고, 이는 공식통계의 약 29배가 실제 범죄 발생량이 된다는 것을 의미한다. 신고율이 평균인 경우, 암수지수는 18.027로 나타났다. 결과를 바탕으로 정책제언을 제시하였다.
Abstract
Official crime data unfortunately contains innate problems, such as dark figure. The current study attempts to estimate dark figure using an approach different from traditional methods. This study, first, reviews literature on unreporting crime and finds out factors affecting unreporting crime. Second, this study develops a mathematical model of estimating dark figure using the factors identified based on logistic regression model. To prove validity of estimation from the model, this study collected data from 733 participants selected through multistage cluster sampling (sampling frame: 900) and convenience sampling (sampling frame: 300) in Seoul, Busan, Daejeon, and Kwangju cities. Dark figure index(DFI) from the model was 1.6643, which means that about 1.7 times of official data on larceny was the substancial total larceny cases occurred in 2008. DFI ranged 1.6 ~ 28.7 depending on crime reporting rates. Based on findings, policy implications have been suggested.
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