경제적 변화와 경찰력 변화가 범죄에 미치는 효과분석- 벡터오차수정모형을 이용하여
The Effects of Economic Changes and Police Force Changes on Crimes: an Application of Vector Error Correction Model
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초록
전체범죄와 형법범죄 모두 단기적으로 범죄율에 가장 영향을 미치는 요인은 이전 년도의 해당 범죄의 범죄율이다. 한번 높아진 범죄율은 다음 해의 범죄율에도 영향을 미치며 상당기간 지속되고 있는 것을 확인하였다. 하지만 형법범죄의 경우 장기적인 관점에서 자기상관의 영향력이 줄어들어 형법범죄율자신이 형법범죄율에 미치는 영향이 줄어들며 소득요인과 경기변동요인이 더욱 영향력 있는 요인으로 바뀌게 된다. 전체범죄와 형법범죄 모두 소득의 증가 그리고 경기침체는 범죄율의 증가를 야기하며, 실업률의 증가 역시 범죄율의 증가를 야기하는 것을 분석의 결과 확인할 수 있다. 경찰공무원수의 증가는 범죄율의 증가를 억제하는 요인으로 작용하고 있으나, 경찰예산의 증가는 범죄율의 증가를 억제하는 요인으로 작용하고 있지 못함을 분석의 결과 확인할 수 있다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyzes the relationship of police and crime in Korea by examining the annual rates of crime from 1964 to 2015. We tries to review the annual trends of police and crime in our nation, to examine the relationship of police and crime. These analysis are based on current official crime rates. The data that we have analysed here is obtained form official crime statistics. ‘Analytical Report on Crime’, which is published annually by the Supreme Public Prosecutor’s Office and ‘Police Annual Statistics’ by Korean National Police Agency in Korea. VECM for time series analysis on the years 1964 to 2015 shows that the most important factor for whole crime rate and criminal law crime is previous year’s crime rate in short-term. High crime rate has a decisive effect on the crime rates afterwards. In the long run, however, income and economic fluctuation are the more significant factors for criminal law crime than previous year’s crime rate. Income increase, recession and high rate of unemployment rate give rise to crime rates. Number increasing of police officer inhibits crime rates, but budget increasing of police service does not.
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