보험 구매 상황에서 위험 지각에 영향을 주는 생태학적 단서의 효과
The Effects of Ecological Cue on Risk Perception in Insurance Buying Situations
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초록
낮은 확률이지만 손실이 큰 위험한 사건에 대비해서 보험을 들려는 사람들은 확률의 차이에 어떻게 반응할까? 본 연구는 네 개의 실험에서 가상적인 화학 공장에서 발생할 위험한 사고의 확률을 직접 제시하거나 보험료, 보험금, 그리고 배율 보험금과 같은 간접적인 단서 정보를 제시하고 참여자의 위험 평정과 보험 구매 의사를 물었다. 참여자들은 보험료나 보험금보다는 배율 보험금으로 제시된 조건들에서 위험 사고의 확률 차이에 예민하게 반응하여 위험 지각을 평정하였다. 네 실험은 수렴해서 위험지각에 영향을 주는 직접 확률 정보에 대한 생태학적 타당도가 높은 단서가 배율 보험금임을 밝혔다. 본 연구의 결과는 위험의 지각에서 확률보다 빈도 정보를 강조하는 생태학적 단서 가설(Gigerenzer, 2000)의 예측과 일치한다.
Abstract
How would people who buy an insurance policy respond to a low probability risk with a high future cost? Presented with a scenario describing a low probability accident of a chemical plant, participants in four experiments were asked to rate their perception of the risk and also their intention to buy an insurance of a given premium, an insurance, or a ratio insurance. Participants differently responded only to ratio insurance when rating their perception of risk, not to either premium or insurance. The pattern of results in four experiments converged to the conclusion that ratio insurance, an ecologically valid cue, makes people sensitive to the level of risk expressed in low probabilities of an accident. Our results were consistent with the prediction generated by the ecological cue hypothesis which empathizes the importance of frequency over probability in risk perception (Gigerenzer, 2000).
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