화폐적 생산이론과 금융위기
Monetary Theory of Production and Financial Crisis
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금융위기를 금융부문과 실물부문의 결합 속에서 발생하고 전개되는 경제현상으로 설명하기 위해, 케인스에 의해 제시된 ‘화폐적 생산이론’은 매우 유용한 이론적 틀을 제공한다. 케인스가 그의 여러 저작 속에서 제시했던 화폐적 생산이론의 요소들은 민간의 유동성 선호와 실물 투자, 증권가격의 변화와 실물투자 변동, 은행의 대출의지와 투자조달의 세 가지이다. 이들을 고려하게 되면 경기순환과 금융위기는 실물과 금융부문의 상호작용 속에서 전개되는 것으로 분석될 수 있다. 이 논문은 이러한 케인스의 화폐적 생산이론에 기초하여 지난 30년간의 금융발전을 고려한 새로운 케인지언 화폐적 생산이론을 구축한다. 그리고 그에 기초해 경기순환과 금융위기의 메커니즘을 설명한다. 케인지언 화폐적 생산이론의 특성은 유동성 선호 대상의 증가에 따른 금융팽창과 단기투자 증가, 기관투자가 성장에 따른 투자변동성 증가, 은행영업방식의 변화와 단기대출 및 재산권 투자 대출 증가, 금융적 수익원리 강화에 따른 실물투자 억제 등으로 나타난다. 이렇게 되면, 경기순환은 그 진폭이 더욱 커지고 거품과 과열도 더욱 커진다. 2008년 미국 금융위기는 이러한 확장된 케인지언 화폐적 생산이론의 경기순환과 금융위기 설명에 잘 부합한다고 할 수 있다.
Abstract
The developed monetary economy has influenced on the linkage between the investment in capital assets and the financial sector in the monetary theory of production. First, the creation of short-term financial instruments and the enhancement of liquidity in existing securities have decreased the demand for money. As a result, the liquidity preference is mitigated and the financial assets are expanded largely. Second, the development of capital markets and the growth of institutional investors have strengthened the boom and volatility in capital markets and have increased the bubble in the boom phase, which has led to unstable investment and over-investment in industries with bubble. Third, as capital market has become the center of financial activity and securitization has been developed, the lending of banks has moved to the short-term household lending or the loan to be able to transfer into security. The U.S. financial crisis and depression of 2008 can be explained by the extended Keynesian monetary theory of production in the developed monetary economy. The liquidity increase in financial assets derived from the development of secondary capital markets and securitization decreased the demand for money and fueled the expansion of financial market. The development of capital markets and securitization increased greatly the origination of mortgage loan and the issuance of MBSs and CDOs. This led to the rise of housing prices, the bubble in housing markets, and over-investment in residential housing industry. The consequent busts in housing markets, the failure of mortgage lenders, and the bankruptcy of MBS and CDO issuers and investors led to the financial crisis and economic depression in the United States.
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