K리그에서 기대치 기반 선호와 손실 회피 : 유튜브 하이라이트 댓글을 활용한 텍스트 분석
Reference Dependent Preference and Fan Responses: A Text Analysis of YouTube Comments on K-League Highlights
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[목적] 본 연구의 목적은 K리그 팬들이 기대치 기반 선호와 손실 회피 성향을 나타내는가를 검증하는 데 있다. [방법] 2023시즌 K리그 33라운드까지의 총 198경기를 대상으로 쿠팡플레이에서 운영하는 유튜브 경기 하이라이트에작성된 댓글을 수집하였다. 이후, 댓글 작성자가 응원하는 팀을 파악하고 중립팬의 댓글을 제외한 총 16,975개의 댓글을 대상으로 KoBERT 모델을 활용하여 감정 분석을 하였다. 감정 점수를 종속변수로 설정하고 예상하지 못한 승리와예상하지 못한 패배가 감점 점수에 미친 영향을 패널회귀분석을 통해 분석하였다. [결과] 첫째, 예상하지 못한 승리는 더 많은 긍정적인 댓글을 유발하고 예상하지 못한 패배는 더 많은 부정적인 댓글을유발하여 기대치 기반 선호 이론이 검증되었다. 둘째, 예상하지 못한 승리의 회귀계수값과 예상하지 못한 회귀계수 절대값의 차이는 통계적으로 유의하지 않았고 이에 손실 회피 성향의 증거는 발견하지 못했다. [결론] 본 연구의 결과는 스포츠 시청자들에 대한 더 깊은 이해를 도출하며, 국내 팬과 해외 팬의 차이를 설명하고 국내프로스포츠 산업 발전에 이바지할 수 있는 시사점을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.
Abstract
PURPOSE This study examined whether K-league fans’ responses to game outcomes align with reference-dependent preference and loss aversion principles. METHODS We collected user comments from the 2023 K-league game highlights videos on YouTube. We identified each user’s supporting team and excluded neutral fans’ comments. Sentiment analysis using KoBERT was applied, and estimated sentiment scores served as dependent variables. We performed panel regression to test whether unexpected wins and losses generate positive and negative comments. RESULTS First, an unexpected win generates more positive comments, and an unexpected loss generates more negative comments; a reference-dependent preference exists. Second, the difference between the coefficient on upset win and the absolute value of the coefficient on upset loss is not statistically different; loss aversion does not exist. CONCLUSIONS The findings derive a deeper understanding of sports viewership and explain the difference between domestic and overseas sports fans. Also, the findings provide insights into the domestic professional sports business.
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