CHALLENGES IN THE NEW NORTHEAST ASIAN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT: ISSUES OF MD AND JAPANESE HISTORY
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The September 11 terrorist attack on the United States marks a strategic turning point in the global security situation as well as in Northeast Asia. A look at what happened before September 11, 2001, will cast a light, though imperfect, to help think in advance about the new security picture. It can be argued that the missile defense(MD) program of the US and the issue of Japan’s attitude towards its colonial and wartime history past are the two core issues around which fault lines among major players have formed. MD forms a barrier between the US on the one hand, and China and North Korea on the other. Japan and Taiwan seem to be inclined to the US position, while South Korea appears to maintain calculated ambiguity somewhat sympathetic to the US position. The colonial history poses another fault line alienating Japan from China, South Korea, North Korea and Taiwan, which complicates American efforts to strengthen bilateral ties between US allies, Japan and South Korea. MD and the history issue, vividly show how complicated it is to build a durable structure of cooperation in Northeast Asia. They also highlight the inherent impediments facing each of the major players. But they do not represent all the unresolved issues, and the September 11th terrorist attack also adds yet another element to the dilemma. The upside is that the incident has brought Sino-US security relations closer. The downside is that it hardens the US perception of the North Korean regime. It is still too early to predict how the overall balance sheet of the security equation following the incident will look like in the next couple of years. But it will affect the security environment of Northeast Asia in a very fundamental way.
Abstract
The September 11 terrorist attack on the United States marks a strategic turning point in the global security situation as well as in Northeast Asia. A look at what happened before September 11, 2001, will cast a light, though imperfect, to help think in advance about the new security picture. It can be argued that the missile defense(MD) program of the US and the issue of Japan’s attitude towards its colonial and wartime history past are the two core issues around which fault lines among major players have formed. MD forms a barrier between the US on the one hand, and China and North Korea on the other. Japan and Taiwan seem to be inclined to the US position, while South Korea appears to maintain calculated ambiguity somewhat sympathetic to the US position. The colonial history poses another fault line alienating Japan from China, South Korea, North Korea and Taiwan, which complicates American efforts to strengthen bilateral ties between US allies, Japan and South Korea. MD and the history issue, vividly show how complicated it is to build a durable structure of cooperation in Northeast Asia. They also highlight the inherent impediments facing each of the major players. But they do not represent all the unresolved issues, and the September 11th terrorist attack also adds yet another element to the dilemma. The upside is that the incident has brought Sino-US security relations closer. The downside is that it hardens the US perception of the North Korean regime. It is still too early to predict how the overall balance sheet of the security equation following the incident will look like in the next couple of years. But it will affect the security environment of Northeast Asia in a very fundamental way.