Battle with the Wind and Waves: Uncertainty and Instability in Northeast Asia

Abstract

Northeast Asia is the most dynamic region in the world. Countries in the region have experienced rapid economic development, and economic exchanges in the region have increased rapidly for more than two decades. Nevertheless, there exist various factors that have prevented the creation of a stable security environment in the region. First, the most salient and enduring security issue in Northeast Asia remains how to deal with North Korea and its nuclear program. Despite 15 years of negotiations with the North, the issue itself remains basically the same. Second, territorial disputes and unresolved historical tensions remain obstacles to stable and institutionalized security relations among regional states. Third, less immediate but potentially volatile issue is the rise of China. All regional states have adjusted their expectations and policies as China continues to grow, while some are more wary than others. The final issue is how and whether the US can maintain its leadership role in the region. Though the US is the most powerful and important actor in the region, it is preoccupied with events in the Middle East and Afghanistan, and with the recent financial crisis. On the Korean peninsula, tensions between South and North Korea has increased since the beginning of the Lee Myung-bak administration. The Six-Party Talks to resolve North Korean nuclear issue has been stalled since the US demanded verification on the Youngbyun nuclear facilities. The North refused to accept either verification or to continue disablement process. Furthermore, the North launched a long-range missile and conducted second nuclear explosion in April and May 2009, respectively. South Korea, in an attempt to deter North Korean proliferation activities, joined the PSI as a full-member. The North announced that the South’s participation to the PSI a declaration of war against it. Inter-Korean dialogues and exchanges have already stopped since the North shot to death a South Korean tourist at Mt. Kumgang in July 2008. In addition to mounting military tension between South and North Korea, there’s a fear of abandonment by the US and decoupling of the ROK-US alliance among South Koreans. Security environment in Northeast Asia is still very complex, fluid, unstable and uncertain. We have to increase transparency and decrease uncertainty to maintain peaceful and prosperous Northeast Asia. In order to do that, countries in the region need a multilateral mechanism to exchange different views and ideas and to increase mutual understanding with each other. We also have to make every effort for North Korea to give up nuclear weapons and join international community as a responsible actor.