Forecasting Changes in Trade Areas Due to the Introduction of GTX, a New Regional Express Rail System in Seoul Metropolitan Area
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The purpose of this study is to forecast changes in trade areas of the Seoul Metropolitan Area as a result of the introduction of the Great Train Express (GTX) which connects Seoul and its neighboring cities. Existing studies have not shown consistent analysis findings as to whether the introduction of high-speed transportation system such as the GTX would aggravate the population concentration on megacities such as Seoul. Some argue that the population concentration on big cities will be unavoidable, while others maintain that such concentration will not take place and travel time between cities will only reduce. This study extracted the travel time and the size of existing trade areas as main factors affecting the formation of trade areas and identified a probability model that determines trade areas from such factors. While this study adopted general study methodology in this regard, it is differentiated from existing studies in that (1) it used the discrete probability model to reflect actual effects of travel time, which represents accessibility, on the selection of a trade area; and (2) it conducted feedback analysis on the complex network through which results of an analysis serve as input values for another analysis. The feedback analysis using the probability model proposed by this study allowed us to predict that the introduction of the GTX would aggravate the population concentration on Seoul.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to forecast changes in trade areas of the Seoul Metropolitan Area as a result of the introduction of the Great Train Express (GTX) which connects Seoul and its neighboring cities. Existing studies have not shown consistent analysis findings as to whether the introduction of high-speed transportation system such as the GTX would aggravate the population concentration on megacities such as Seoul. Some argue that the population concentration on big cities will be unavoidable, while others maintain that such concentration will not take place and travel time between cities will only reduce. This study extracted the travel time and the size of existing trade areas as main factors affecting the formation of trade areas and identified a probability model that determines trade areas from such factors. While this study adopted general study methodology in this regard, it is differentiated from existing studies in that (1) it used the discrete probability model to reflect actual effects of travel time, which represents accessibility, on the selection of a trade area; and (2) it conducted feedback analysis on the complex network through which results of an analysis serve as input values for another analysis. The feedback analysis using the probability model proposed by this study allowed us to predict that the introduction of the GTX would aggravate the population concentration on Seoul.
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