주택가격 변화가 은행 대출전략 행태에 미치는 영향 : 기업대출의 축소행태를 중심으로
The Study on the Effect of Housing Price Change on Lending Strategy Behavior : Evidence from Crowding-Out Behavior in Korean Banks
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초록
본 논문은 주택가격 상승 시점에 은행의 기업대출 공급 축소 가능성이 있다는 최근 연구 결과에 주목하였다. 아울러 최근 몇 년간 이루어진 저금리 기조와 주택가격 상승에도 불구하고, 국내 실물경제의 부진은 대출 축소행태 존재 가능성 때문임을 검증해 보려는 의도가 연구 동기가 되었다. 본 논문은 최근 보고된 Chakraborty, Goldstein and MacKinlay(2016), Tai(2016)의 선행논문들을 참고하여, 국내 은행들의 소위 신용공급 축소행태(Crowding-Out Behavior) 존재 여부를 검증하였다. 본 논문은 연구 주제인 국내 은행들의 대출포트폴리오 변화와 주택가격 변화 간 관련성을 패널데이터 분석모형인 Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel Data 모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 이를 토대로 확인한 주요 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전국 및 서울의 주택가격 상승이 은행권 대출포트폴리오에서 중소기업대출 비중 축소를 초래하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 중소기업대출의 축소와 관련성이 있는 경제 및 금융시장 요인으로는 낮은 수준의 금리와 시장 유동성임이 확인되었다. 셋째, 중소기업대출의 축소와 관련 있는 은행의 특성요인은 대체로 높은 위험 수준, 낮은 수준의 수익성임이 확인되었다. 결론적으로 최근 저금리 기조와 함께 주택가격 상승이 지속적으로 이루어지는 상황에서 기업들의 원활한 자금 조달이 제약될 수 있음을 인식할 필요가 있다.
Abstract
Current study focused on the recent studies reporting that upward of housing price may result in reduction of corporate loan. Furthermore, as the research motivation, current study needed to examine on shrinking lending behavior shown in the Korean banks because economic condition in domestic market is depressed even though low interest rate and upward housing price are been showing over recent years. Considering recent studies, Chakraborty, Goldstein and MacKinlay(2016) and Tai(2016), this study examined whether the so-called crowding-out behavior exists in the Korean banks. As the research theme, this study analyzed the relationship between the change of loan portfolio and that of housing price in Korea by using Arellano-Bond dynamic panel data model. Main findings from the empirical test are as follows. First, upward of housing prices in nation and Seoul lead to decreasing SME(small and medium sized enterprise) loan weight within loan portfolio of Korean banks. Second, macro-economic and financial market factors related with making Korean banks cut SME loan are low interest rate and low market liquidity. Third, it is confirmed that bank characteristics affecting SME loan’s reduction are mostly high risk level and low profitability. As a conclusion, it needs to be recognized that smoothing SME financing may be constrained under the stance of low interest rate with rising housing price.
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