中日关系的演变与第二次和解
The Evolution of Sino-Japanese Relations and the Second Reconciliation
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进入21世纪以后，历史问题和领土问题依然是困扰中日关系的两大难题。在本文中，我把自1972年中日邦交正常化以来的47年划分为3个时期。第一个时期是自1972年到1996年的24年。这个时期是中日两国透过中日经济合作，努力克服战争创伤的时期。第二个时期是从1996年到2018年的22年。这个时期中日关系的一个重要特征是，日本希望将政治外交问题与历史认识问题脱钩，从而摆脱外交受历史问题制约的被动局面。第三个时期始于2018年。这个时期中日关系迅速改善。这个变化起因于中美关系的骤变。中国曾经一度构想过与特朗普政权构建“新型大国关系”，但是特朗普总统改变了历届政府的游戏规则，对中国发动了大规模的贸易战争。这场贸易战争不仅涉及工农业产品，更扩大到以5G技术为代表的新科技领域。在政治方面，美国加强同台湾的各个层次的往来，扩大对台军售，给试图以一国两制的方式解决台湾问题的中国造成了巨大的阻力。国际环境的变化倒逼中国与日本重新思考和解问题。但是，这种策略性的和解，不是一个可持续的和解过程。中日双方需要摸索新的路径以实现和解的可持续性。
Abstract
After entering the 21st century, historical issues and territorial issues are still the two major problems perplexing Sino-Japanese relations. In this article, I divide the 47 years, since the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations in 1972, into 3 periods. The first period was 24 years from 1972 to 1996. It was a period when China and Japan were striving to overcome the trauma of the war through Sino-Japanese economic cooperation. The second period was 22 years from 1996 to 2018. An important feature of Sino-Japanese relations during this period was that Japan hope to decouple the issue of political diplomacy from the issue of historical understanding and thus get rid of the passive situation in which diplomacy is constrained by historical issues. The third period began in 2018. Sino-Japanese relations improved rapidly during this period. This change was due to a sudden change in Sino-US relations. China once conceived the concept of building a “new-type of major country relations” with Trump’s regime, but President Trump changed the rules of the game of the previous government and launched a large-scale trade war against China. This trade war not only involves industrial and agricultural area, but also extends to the new science and technology field represented by 5G technology. On the political front, the United States has strengthened exchanges with Taiwan at all levels, expanded arms sales to Taiwan, and creating tremendous resistance to China’s attempt to solve the Taiwan issue by one country, two systems. Changes in the international environment have forced China and Japan to reconsider the issue of reconciliation. However, this strategic reconciliation is not a sustainable reconciliation process. Both China and Japan need to explore new paths to achieve the sustainability of reconciliation.