온체인 데이터를 활용한 암호화폐 시장의 FOMO(Fear of Missing Out) 현상에 대한 분석: 비트코인 지갑생성을 중심으로
Analysis of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) in the Cryptocurrency Market Using On-chain Data: Focused on Bitcoin Wallet Creation
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초록
본 연구는 암호화폐 시장, 특히 비트코인 시장에서 가격 및 거래량 변화가 신규 지갑생성에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 기존 연구에 따르면 암호화폐 시장에서는 가격 상승 시 투자자들의 관심이 증가하고 FOMO(Fear of Missing Out) 현상이 나타나는 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 FOMO 현상이 실제 시장 참여로 이어지는 과정을 비트코인 지갑생성이라는 측면에서 분석하였다. 2014년 1월 1일부터 2024년 5월 30일까지의 기간 동안 비트코인 가격, 거래량, 신규 지갑 수에 대한 데이터를 수집하여 분석을 진행하였다. 그랜저 인과관계 검정 결과, 가격이 가장 선행하는 요인이며 신규 지갑 수가 가장 후행하는 요인임을 확인하였다. 또한, VAR 모형 추정 결과, 비트코인 지갑 수는 과거 1～3일 전 비트코인 가격변화 및 1일 전 거래량 변화에 유의한 양의 영향을 받는 것으로 확인되었다. 충격반응분석 결과에서도 비트코인 가격 및 거래량 충격에 대한 지갑 수의 반응이 유의한 양의 값을 나타내었다. 본 연구의 결과는 암호화폐 시장에서 가격 및 거래량 변화가 신규 투자자의 시장 진입을 촉진하는 요인임을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of price and volume changes in the cryptocurrency market, particularly in the Bitcoin market, on the creation of new wallets. According to existing research, it is known that in the cryptocurrency market, investor interest increases with rising prices, and the phenomenon of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) appears. This study analyzes how this FOMO phenomenon actually leads to market participation, specifically through the creation of Bitcoin wallets. Data on Bitcoin prices, trading volumes, and the number of new wallets were collected and analyzed for the period from January 1, 2014, to May 30, 2024. The Granger causality test results confirmed that price is the leading factor and the number of new wallets is the lagging factor. Additionally, the estimation results from the VAR model showed that the number of Bitcoin wallets is significantly positively affected by changes in Bitcoin prices from 1 to 3 days prior and by trading volume changes from 1 day prior. The impulse response analysis also showed a significant positive response of wallet numbers to shocks in Bitcoin price and trading volume. The findings of this study suggest that changes in price and volume in the cryptocurrency market are factors that facilitate the entry of new investors into the market.
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