베이지안 추론을 통한 학습전략의 효과 및 사용 판단에 대한 착각분석
An Illusion Analysis on the Judgment of Effectiveness and Use of Learning Strategies through Bayesian Inference
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이 연구의 목적은 대학교양과목 수강생을 대상으로 ‘이틀 후’ 시험상황과 ‘3개월 후’ 시험상황에서 ‘인출연습’과 ‘강조/밑줄긋기’ 전략에 대해 각각 효과와 사용 여부에 대한 설문을 실시하고, 베이지안 추론을 이용하여 효과가 있다고 판단할 때 사용할 확률인 조건부 확률을 도출하여 착각 현상을 확인하는 것이다. 설문 결과, 시험 예정 일정이나 학습전략과는 관계없이 ‘사용한다’보다는 ‘효과있다’는 비율이 더 높았다. 베이지안 추론을 적용하여 효과있다고 판단할 때 사용할 확률인 조건부 확률을 확인한 결과, 사전확률 50:50 경우, 3개월 후 ‘인출연습’>3개월 후 ‘강조/밑줄긋기’>이틀 후 ‘강조/밑줄긋기’>이틀 후 ‘인출연습’ 순으로, 그리고 70:30과 30:70 경우, 3개월 후 ‘강조/밑줄긋기’>3개월 후 ‘인출연습’>이틀 후 ‘강조/밑줄긋기’>이틀 후 ‘인출연습’ 순으로 모두 사전확률보다 높은 사후확률이 도출되었다. 결론적으로, 학생들은 시험일정과 학습전략과는 상관없이 ‘사용한다’는 비율보다는 ‘효과있다’는 비율을 더 높게 판단하는 착각 현상을 보였으며, 모든 사전확률 조건에서, 효과가 있다고 판단했을 때 사용할 확률인 사후확률이 사전확률보다 높았지만 대부분 증가율은 30%를 넘지 못했다. 특히 사전확률 70:30과 30:70 경우, ‘이틀 후’ 시험상황에서 두 전략간 사후확률 증가율은 1% 차이였으며, ‘3개월 후’ 시험상황에서는 ‘인출연습’보다 오히려 ‘강조/밑줄긋기’가 19% 차이로 더 높았다. ‘강조/밑줄긋기’의 효과와 사용에 대한 판단을 통해 유창성과 안전성에 있어 심각한 착각 현상이 있음을 재확인하였다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to survey university students for the effectiveness and use of ‘retrieval practice’ and ‘highlighting/underlining’ strategies in ‘exam in 2 days later’ and ‘exam in 3 months later’, and to derive conditional probabilities that will be used to determine effectiveness using Bayesian reasoning. The result of the survey was that the ratio of ‘effectiveness’ was higher than ‘use’ regardless of the test schedules or learning strategies. As a result of confirming the conditional probability, which is the probability to be used to determine effectiveness by applying Bayesian inference, in case that the prior was 50:50, the order of increase of the posterior was as follows: ‘retrieval practice’ after 3 months > ‘highlighting/underlining’ after 3 months > ‘highlighting/ underlining’ after 2 days > ‘retrieval practice’ after 2 days. And in case that the prior was 70:30 or 30:70, the order of increase of the posterior was as follows: ‘highlighting/underlining’ after 3 months> ‘retrieval practice’ after 3 months > ‘highlighting/underlining’ after 2 days > ‘retrieval practice’ after 2 days. In conclusion, students showed an illusion that the ratio of 'effectiveness' was higher than 'use' regardless of the test schedules and learning strategies, and in the case of all the prior conditions, the posterior was higher than the prior, but most of them did not exceed 30%. In particular, in the case of the prior 70:30 and 30:70, the increase in ratio of posterior between the two strategies was 1% different in the test ‘after 2 days’, but in the test ‘after 3 months’, ‘highlighting/underlining’ was 19% different. Through the judgment of the effectiveness and use of ‘highlighting/underlining’, it was reaffirmed that there is a serious illusion in fluency and stability.
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