국제화시대 복지지출의 정치경제: 신생민주주의 국가 사례를 중심으로
Globalization and Welfare Spending in New Democracies
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
이 연구논문에서 우리는 신생민주주의 국가에 있어서 무역개방의확대가 정부의 복지정책에 미치는 경제적 영향력을 분석하려 했다. 이를 위해, 이 논문은 소위 경제개발협력기구(OECD) 국가라 불리는서구선진국가를 대상으로 전개된 국제화논쟁을 검토하였으며, 이를 통해 수렴가설과 보상가설이라는 두 개의 주요 가설의 주장을 살펴보았다. 과연 신생민주주의 국가 사례에서는 이들 두 가설 중에서 어느가설이 더 설명력을 가지는가? 비례대표제, 좌파정부, 연립정부, 정당체제, 연방제와 같은 정치적 변수, 1년의 시차를 둔 1인당 GDP, 1년의 시차를 둔 국내총생산액 대비 재정수입 비율, 1년의 시차를 둔 인플레이션율과 같은 경제적 변수, 그리고 노인인구비율 및 사회이질성과 같은 사회적 변수의 영향력을 통제한 상태에서 이루어진 패널분석은 무역개방의 확대가 보상가설이 주장하는 것처럼 복지지출을 증대시키는 것이 아니라, 수렴가설의 주장대로 복지지출을 축소시키는 방향으로 경제적 영향력을 행사하고 있다는 결과를 드러내주었다. 논문 접수: 2016.12.12. / 심사 완료: 2016.12.20. / 게재 확정: 2016.12.20.
Abstract
This paper intends to explore the economic effect of globalization, especially trade openness, on ruling governments’ welfare spending in new democracies. To perform this task, this paper reviews the debate on the influence of globalization in the developed OECD countries, thereby summarizing the core arguments of two major hypotheses: the convergence hypothesis and the compensation hypothesis. Between these two hypotheses, this paper tries to test which hypothesis offers a clearer explanation in new democracies countries. A panel analysis reveals that the expansion of trade openness has exerted a statistically significant influence on a decrease rather than an increase in ruling governments’ welfare spending in a way expected by the convergence hypothesis, while controlling for political variables such as proportional representation system, leftist government, coalition government, party system, and federal system; economic variables such as one-year lagged GDP per capita, one-year lagged government revenue, and one-year lagged inflation rate; and social variables such as the percentage of population over 65 years old and the extent of social heterogeneity.
참고문헌 (54)
- 민인식, "STATA 패널데이터 분석" (2010), 한국 STATA학회
- 안용흔, "국제화, 선거제도, 그리고 재정지출", 21세기정치학회보, 21(3), pp.106~130 (2011), 21세기정치학회[DOI]
- 안용흔, "대통령 선거제도와 복지지출", 의정논총, 11(1), pp.35~68 (2016), 한국의정연구회[DOI]
- Andrew, David M, "Capital Mobility and State Autonomy: Toward a Structural Theory of International Monetary Relations", International Studies Quarterly, 38(2), pp.193~218 (1994)
- Beck, Nathaniel, "What to Do with Time-Series and Cross-Section Data", American Political Science Review, 89(3), pp.634~647 (1995)
- Beck, Nathaniel, "The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology", pp.456~474 (2010), Oxford University Press
- Calomiris, Charles, "Globalization", pp.36~76 (2005), Columbia University Press
- Cameron, David, "The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis", American Political Science Review, 72(4), pp.1243~1261 (1978)
- Cox, Gary, "Centripetal and Centrifugal Incentives in Electoral Systems", American Journal of Political Science, 34(4), pp.903~935 (1990)
- Dollar, David, "Globalization", pp.96~128 (2005), Columbia University Press
- Esping-Andersen, Gǿsta, "Markets against Politics: The Social Democratic Road to Power" (1985), Princeton University Press
- Esping-Andersen, Gǿsta, "The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism" (1990), Princeton University Press
- Fearon, James, "Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country", Journal of Economic Growth, 8(2), pp.195~222 (2003)
- Garrett, Geoffrey, "Capital Mobility, Trade, and the Domestic Politics of Economic Policy", International Organization, 49(4), pp.657~687 (1995)
- Garrett, Geoffrey, "Trade, Capital Mobility, and Government Spending around the World", Paper prepared for presentation at Yale University (1999)
- Geddes, Barbara, "Institutional Sources of Corruption in Brazil", Third World Quarterly, 13(4), pp.641~661 (1992)
- Gujarati, Damodar, "Basic Econometrics" (2009), McGraw-Hill Education
- Hibbs, Douglas, "The American Political Economy" (1987), Cambridge University Press
- Hill, R. Carter, "Principles of Econometrics" (2012), Wiley
- Hsiao, Cheng, "Analysis of Panel Data" (2003), Cambridge University Press
- Huber, Evelyne, "Social Democracy, Christian Democracy, Constitutional Structure, and the Welfare State", American Journal of Sociology, 99(3), pp.711~749 (1993)
- Huber, Evelyne, "Politics and Social Spending in Latin America", Journal of Politics, 70(2), pp.420~436 (2008)
- Huntington, Samuel P, "The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late 20th Century" (1993), University of Oklahoma Press
- Irwin, Douglas, "Globalization", pp.19~35 (2005), Columbia University Press
- Iversen, Torben, "The Causes of Welfare State Expansion", World Politics, 52(3), pp.313~349 (2000)
- Iversen, Torben, "Electoral Institutions and the Politics of Coalition: Why Some Democracies Redistribute More Than Others", American Political Science Review, 100(2), pp.165~181 (2006)
- Janoski, Thomas, "The Comparative Political Economy of the Welfare State" (1994), Cambridge University Press
- Kaufman, Robert R, "Globalization, Domestic Politics, and Social Spending in Latin America", World Politics, 53(4), pp.553~587 (2001)
- Kmenta, Jan, "Elements of Econometrics" (1986), Macmillan
- Korpi, Walter, "The Working Class in Welfare Capitalism: Work, Unions, and Politics in Sweden" (1978), Routledge and Kegan Paul
- Korpi, Walter, "The Paradox of Redistribution and Strategies of Equality: Welfare State Institutions, Inequality, and Poverty in the Western Countries", American Sociological Review, 63(5), pp.661~687 (1998)
- Kroh, Martin, "The Comparative Study of Electoral System" (2012), Oxford University Press
- Kurzer, Paulette, "Unemployment in Open Economies: The Impact of Trade, Finance and European Integration", Comparative Political Studies, 24(3), pp.3~30 (1991)
- Linz, Juan, "The Perils of Presidentialism", Journal of Democracy, 1, pp.51~69 (1990)
- Linz, Juan, "Toward Consolidated Democracies", Journal of Democracy, 7(2), pp.14~33 (1996)
- Londregan, John, "Poverty, the Coup Trap and the Seizure of Executive Power", World Politics, 42(2), pp.151~183 (1990)
- Mainwaring, Scott, "Building Democratic Institutions:Party Systems in Latin America", pp.354~398 (1995), Stanford University Press
- Mainwaring, Scott, "Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal", Comparative Politics, 29(4), pp.449~471 (1997)
- Nohlen, Dieter, "Elections in the Americas, Vol. II" (2005), Oxford University Press
- Norris, Pippa, "Driving Democracy: Do Power-Sharing Institutions Work?" (2008), Cambridge University Press
- O’Brien, Robert M, "A Caution Regarding Rules of Thumb for Variance Inflation Factors", Quality and Quantity, 41(5), pp.673~690 (2007)
- Parks, Richard, "Efficient Estimation of a System of Regression Equations When Disturbances Are Both Serially and Contemporaneously Correlated", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62, pp.500~509 (1967)
- Persson, Torsen, "Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy" (2002), MIT Press
- Persson, Torsen, "The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy" (2009), Oxford University Press
- Przeworski, Adam, "What Makes Democracies Endure?", Journal of Democracy, 7, pp.39~55 (1996)
- Rodrik, Dani, "Globalization", pp.196~213 (2005), Columbia University Press
- Rudra, Nitta, "Globalization, Democracy, and Effective Welfare Spending in the Developing World", Comparative Political Studies, 38(9), pp.1015~1049 (2005)
- Sachs, Jeffrey, "Globalization", pp.214~227 (2005), Columbia University Press
- Saiderman, Stephen M, "Democratization, Political Institutions, and Ethnic Conflict", Comparative Political Studies, 35(1), pp.103~129 (2002)
- Schedler, Andreas, "What is Democratic Consolidation?", Journal of Democracy, 9(2), pp.91~107 (1998)
- Stephens, John D., "The Transition from Capitalism to Socialism" (1979), Macmillan
- Wolff, Stefan, "Power Sharing: New Challenges for Divided Societies" (2006), University of Michigan Press
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, "Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach" (2009), South-Western College Publishing
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, "Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data" (2010), MIT Press