‘일대일로’ 구상과 아세안 국가들의 중국 대응
The ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ and ASEAN countries’ responses toward China
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이 논문은 중국의 일대일로 (Belt and Road Initiative)가 아세안 국가들에게 확산되어 중국이 이 지역에서 지배적인 세력이 될 것인가 하는 질문을 던진다. 이 문제를 탐구하기 위해 아세안 국가 지도자들의 대중국 접근과 정치적 동학, 그리고 중국의 정치군사적 세력 확대에 대한 견제라는 두 변수를 중심으로 분석할 것을 제안한다. 이 두 변수를 중심으로 분석할 때 아세안 국가의 일대일로는 중국 일방적으로 추진되는 것으로 단순화 시킬 수 없다는 것을 알 수 있다. 첫째, 아세안 개별국가 정치지도자들이 자국 경제발전의 필요와 정치적 동학에 따라 일대일로의 구체적 사업들을 받아들이고 조정하는 경우가 빈번하다. 둘째, 아세안 국가들은 중국과 경제교류를 지속하지만 동시에 정치적, 군사적으로 중국의 영향력 하에 지배되는 것을 거부하고 견제한다. 이와 같이 경제적 실리를 추구하면서 동시에 중국의 세력 확대를 견제하는 전략을 헤징 (hedging)전략으로 설명한다. 실제 일대일로 케이스로 친중적인 미얀마와 말레이시아를 들어 이 나라들에서 정치적 변화에 따라 일대일로 사업이 취소되고 재조정된 경우들을 살펴본다. 이 두 나라를 비롯하여 아세안 국가들은 대부분 경제발전의 필요상 경제적으로 중국과 협력을 유지하지만 중국의 정치군사적 세력 확대로 자국이 위협받는 것을 견제한다. 이것은 국가에 따라 차이는 있지만 헤징전략으로 설명할 수 있다. 즉, 헤징의 개념으로 설명하면, ‘경제적 실용주의’로 경제협력을 추진하며, 다른 한편 정치군사적으로는 중국을 견제하여 다른 인도-태평양 국가들과 협력하는 ‘간접적 밸런싱’의 전략을 취한다는 것이다. 아세안은 중국의 지배적 영향 하에 들어가기를 원치 않으며 ‘아세안 중심성’을 유지하려 할 것이다.
Abstract
The paper throws a question whether the ASEAN countries will be under the dominant Chinese influence with the progress of “the Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). In order to research this question, this study suggests two variables with which to examine the realities of the BRI in ASEAN countries. One is the approach to China by political leaders of ASEAN countries and the political dynamics; The other is restraint and denial of China’s dominance by ASEAN countries. When the realities of BRI in ASEAN countries are examined focusing on the two variables, we can find that the BRI projects are not carried out by the Chinese influence unilaterally. On the contrary, political leaders of the ASEAN countries often accept and adjust the BRI projects according to their economic necessities and conditions, and responding to the political dynamics of their countries. Also, whereas the ASEAN countries continue economic cooperations with China, they try to restrain strengthening political aggressiveness of China in the region. The strategy of pursuing the maximization of economic interests on the one hand and restraining the increase of political dominance on the other hand is called the ‘hedging strategy’. This paper takes two example cases of Malaysia and Myanmar and shows how the political leaders in these countries cancelled and scaled back the BRI projects in the context of the political dynamics, according to their economic conditions. The degree of hedging against Chinese influence varies depending upon countries. Nevertheless we can argue that ASEAN countries accept the BRI projects with the ‘economic pragmatism’ but try to balance out the increasing Chinese political influence and military aggressiveness by cooperating with other Indo-Pacific nations. The latter policy of cooperating with other competing Indo-Pacific countries is a sort of ‘indirect balancing’ strategy. The ASEAN countries want to keep the ‘ASEAN centrality’, refusing to fall under the Chinese dominance.
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