RUSSIAN MILITARY Transformation: Trends and Implications for EAST ASIA

Abstract

Russia’s interventions in the Ukraine crisis and the Syrian conflict have refocused attention on the Russian military. Compared to the 2008 Georgian War, the Russian military revealed significant improvement in its capabilities. Russia waged a 'hybrid war' against Ukraine with success. Then, during Russia’s Syria operation, in which Russia used its armed forces beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union for the first time since the end of the Cold War, demonstrated advanced military capabilities. These Russian military operations provide a great opportunity for assessing the outcomes of Russia’s military transformation. This article reviews the current conditions and limitations of the Russian military, and to understand their impacts. With the 2008 military reform, including a change in the military structure and command system as well as military professionalization and weapons modernization, this article presents the new look of Russian armed forces on the battlefield. The Russian military has been revamped into a force that is better equipped and more professional and combat-ready. This strengthened Russian force has some significant implications for international security. Although it is not meant to be superior to current Western forces, a strengthened Russian military might bring about instabilities in the current international order. Moscow has urged its armed forces to serve as a security policy instrument for Russia’s return to great power status. Russia's military had achieved multiple aims through the Ukraine crisis and the intervention in Syria. Russia could expand its areas of influence, preventing former Soviet Union states from becoming NATO members. Moreover, Moscow revealed its ambition to play a global role on the international stage through its strengthened military power. Apart from the political objectives, Russia military could have opportunities to test its war-fighting capabilities and new weapons systems resulting from its military reform in the Syrian battlefield. However, Russia also faces significant obstacles: Much of its military equipment and weaponry is outdated and rearmament has been a slow process. The Russian military, which has relative weakness in terms of its conventional military capability, is not yet strong enough to threaten the U.S. and NATO; The buildup of Russian military power is likely to bring about the reinforcement NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe. It has the possibility of triggering a new arms race; What is worse, Russia’s economy has been declining due to low oil prices and the Western economic sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis; The Russian defense industry also has weaknesses in its production capabilities and high-tech fields such as electronics.Consequently, it is uncertain whether Russia will be able to carry out its military transformation successfully. Nevertheless, the Russian military will strengthen its capabilities, even if Russia will not be able to overcome its various problems.