카드의 유형별 거래행태와 가계의 목적별 최종소비지출사이의 관련성 연구
The Study on the Relationship between Transaction Behavior of Card per Type and Private Final Consumption Expenditure by Purpose: Evidence from Korean Case
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초록
본 연구는 카드거래 데이터를 활용하여 실시간으로 경제흐름을 예측하려는 글로벌 연구경향을 고려하여, 국내 카드유형별 거래행태와 가계의 목적별 최종소비지출간의 관련성을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 연구를 통한 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 최종소비지출중 기초생계비로서, 지출금액이 크고, 반복적인 지출행태를 보이는 소비지출부문인 임료 및 수도광열 소비지출변화는 신용판매중 일시불 거래변화와 정(+)의 관련성을 보였다. 둘째, 음식·숙박관련 지출변화는 신용판매 일시불 또는 할부거래 변화에 정(+)의 영향력을 행사하였다. 셋째, 신용판매중 할부거래에 한해 유의한 영향을 미치는 소비지출부문중에서 오락 및 문화 소비지출변화, 교육 소비지출변화는 할부거래 변화에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미쳤다. 넷째, 현금서비스의 변화와 음식·숙박관련 지출변화간에는 유의한 정(+)의 관련성이 확인되었다. 다섯째, 직불형 카드거래는 가계의 최종소비행태와 유의한 관련성을 보이지 않았다. 재무적 유인을 바탕으로 신용카드거래를 이용한다는 점에서, 재무적 유인이 약한 직불형 카드거래를 통해 가계의 최종소비지출행태를 예측하는 것은 어려울 것으로 사료된다. 결론적으로 국내 가계소비행태의 경우 지불규모가 크고, 반복지출경향이 있는 소비지출의 경우 대금지연, 할인 등 재무적 유인에 의존하는 경향이 있었다. 국민경제 흐름의 정확한 예측을 위해 다양한 소비자 거래정보를 보유한 국내 카드회사의 데이터 활용방안이 절실한 시점이다.
Abstract
This study examines empirically the relationship between transaction behavior of card per type and private final consumption expenditure by purpose in the Korean credit card market based on the consideration of global research trend forecasting the economic flow by using the data of card transaction in real time. Main test results from current study are as follows. First, the change of utility costs with the large amounts and repetitive expenditure behavior in the consumption expenditures as the minimum living expense guaranteed affects positively the lump sum transaction of sales on credit. Second, the change of the expenditure related to food·lodging affects positively lump sum or installment transaction of sales on credit. Third, the change in entertainment & cultural consumption expenditure and education one had a significantly positive effect on the change of installment transaction. Fourth, there exists the positive relationship between the change of cash advance and the expenditure related to food·lodging. Fifth, debit card transaction did not show any significant relationship with private final consumption expenditure. It is difficult to predict final consumption behavior of household through debit card transaction which is weak in financial incentive because credit card transaction is mainly achieved based on financial incentive. As a concluding remark, domestic household consumption behavior tends to be dependent on financial incentive such as delay payment, discount, and etc., as far as the consumption expenditure with a large amount of payment and a tendency to repeatedly be spent is concerned. It is urgent to utilize data from domestic card firms with various consumers’ transactions in order to forecast accurately the flow of the national economy.
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