복합재난접근법에 의한 저수지 붕괴 리스크 분석
Risk Analysis for Reservoir Collapse by a Multi-hazard Approach
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초록
본 연구에서는 올해 일어난 모원저수지 붕괴사고(2018) 원인을 복합재난접근법을 통하여 추정하였다. 모원저수지 붕괴사고(2018)는 하도 변화, 저수면적 변화, 토지피복 변화, 강수량 변화에 따른다양한 위험에 의한 것으로 추정되었다. 한국농어촌공사가 관리하는 전국 3,186개소 저수지에 대해서 복합재난접근법을 통하여 저수지 붕괴 리스크를 분석하였다. 저수지 붕괴로 인한 발생결과는저수용량에 비례하는 것으로 가정하여 5단계로 등급화하였다. 저수지 붕괴 발생가능성은 저수지안전점검 등급, 강수량 변화, 지진규모 변화, 토지피복 변화, 산불면적으로 인한 위험을 고려하여점수 산정 후 5단계로 등급화하였다. 발생가능성과 발생결과로 이루어지는 리스크 매트릭스를 활용하여 리스크를 계산하였다. 시군구별로 저수지 붕괴 리스크를 집계하여 리스크가 큰 시군구를 식별하였다. 나주, 영암, 경주의 저수지 붕괴 리스크가 큰 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
In the study, we infer the causes of the Mowon Reservoir Collapse which occurred in 2018. It was figured out that the Mowon Reservoir Collapse was induced by the hazards from changes in waterway, reservoir area, land cover, and rainfall. We analyzed the risk of collapse for 3,186 reservoirs managed by the Korean Rural Community Corporation (KRCC) through a multi-hazard approach. The consequences of the reservoir collapse were categorized to 5 classes, assuming that the losses by collapse are proportional to reservoir capacities. The likelihoods were rated for each class according to the scores determined by the hazards from reservoir inspection grade, rainfall change, earthquake magnitude change, land cover change, and fire area. The reservoir collapse risks were calculated by a risk matrix of likelihood and consequence. Naju, Yeongam and Gyeongju were identified as the most risky Si-gun-gu’s according to the total sum risks.
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