4대강 재자연화 정책에 따른 갈등의 동태성에 대한 인과순환구조 분석
Analysis of Conflict Dynamics in Re-Naturalization Policy for the 4 Major Rivers
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이 논문은 4대강 개발 단계로부터 재자연화 정책으로 전화되는 과정에서 초래된 갈등의 동태적 특성과 여기에 영향을 미치고 있는 요인들의 인과순환적 피드백 구조들을 탐색적으로 규명하여 국민적갈등양상으로 전개되고 있는 갈등을 완화하기 위한 정책지렛대가 무엇인가를 도출하고자한 연구이다. 이 논문에서는 강의 자연성 회복은 매우 다양하고 무수히 많은 사회경제⋅생태적 요인들이 상호작용하여 시간의 흐름에 따라 매우 동태적인 갈등행태가 나타난다는 것을 확인하였다. 분석결과로서 4대강 개발에서 재자연화 정책으로 전환되는 과정에서는 시기별로 갈등 표출양상이 다르게 나타났으며, 정부, 정당, 환경단체, 농민, 지역주민 등의 행위자들 간에는 다양한 요인들이 상호작용하는 갈등의 인과순환적 강화피드백 구조 또는 완화 피드백 구조가 작동하고 있었다. 4대강 재자연화정책에 따른 갈등문제를 해결하기 위한 정책지렛대 중의 하나로서 보다 장기적으로 강의 자연성회복에 대한 과학적 데이터를 축적하는 한편 신뢰할 만한 장기적인 평가와 결정을 내리는 것이 중요하다고 보았다.
Abstract
This study investigated the dynamics of policy conflicts in pursuing the Re-Naturalization Policy of the dismantling the weirs to restore the nature of the 4 major rivers in S. Korea. The study attempted to derive policy leverage points to alleviate the dynamic conflicts created while transitioning from the 4 Major Rivers Development Policy of past government to the Re-Naturalization Policy of current government. It was confirmed that the restoration of the nature of the rivers involves complex interactions of diverse and numerous socioeconomic and ecological factors, producing highly dynamic conflict behavior over time. The analysis shows that the expression of conflict differed by the period in the process of policy transition, and a dominant feedback structure was constructed to identify leverage points in alleviating the intractable conflicts in an arena where various interests groups such as the government, political parties, environmental groups, farmers, and local-area residents, etc. interplay.
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