대표농도경로를 이용한 영산강·섬진강 유역의 극한기후 변화전망
Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Extreme Weather in Yeongsan·Seomjin River Basins based on the Representative Concentration Pathways
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참고문헌
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초록
본 논문은 미래의 기후변화가 영산강과 섬진강 유역(이하 영·섬 유역)의 극한강수와 가뭄발생에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 IPCC 5차보고서의 대표농도경로 기후변화 시나리오로부터 모의된 미래 강수 및 기온자료를 이용하여 극한강수와 가뭄변화를 전망하였다. GEV 분포를 이용한 극한강수 전망결과, 미래로 갈수록 극한강수의 평균과 극한강수 간의 변동성이 커짐을 확인하였고, 분포 곡선 상위 꼬리가 두터워져 큰 극한강수의 발생빈도가 잦아지리라 전망되었다. SPEI를 이용한 가뭄 전망결과, 21세기 말 가뭄의 심도가 깊어지고, 가뭄지수 ‘-1’이하의 발생 빈도수도 잦아지리라 전망되었다.
Abstract
This study forecasts extreme precipitation events and changes in drought using the projected precipitation and temperature data simulated under(RCPs) scenarios in the IPCC Fifth Report to estimate the impacts of future climate changes on extreme precipitation events and droughts in the Yeongsan and Seomjin River basins. The results obtained by using the generalized extreme-value(GEV) distribution showed that, for extreme precipitation, the variability is increasing between extreme precipitation events in intensity and amount over time and the upper tail of the PDF also grew thicker, suggesting that the occurrence of such events would also increase. For droughts, the SPEI results showed that the severity of droughts would increase more intense toward the end of the 21st century, as would the occurrence of droughts with a drought index of-1 or below.
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