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대규모 감염병 이후 회복탄력적 역세권 골목상권 구축을 위한 기계학습모형 기반 업종 다양화 전략

Machine Learning-Based Business Diversification Strategies for Resilient Alley Market Districts after the Pandemic

김현수|김현우|안정헌|정민주
(사)위기관리이론과실천 (Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis)|2024.01|Crisisonomy|제20권 제1호|pp. 61-81|DOI https://doi.org/10.14251/crisisonomy.2024.20.1.61

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키워드

COVID-19입지계수XGBoostdynamic time warpingLQ상권매출동적타임워핑commercial sales

초록

COVID-19 이후 일상적인 외부활동 위축으로 인한 유동인구 감소 등은 골목 상권에 직접적인 경제적타격을 입혔으며 이는 지역경제 붕괴에까지 영향을 미치기에 회복탄력적인 골목상권 구축이 필요한시점이다. 이에 본 연구는 서울시 역세권 골목상권의 COVID-19 전후 매출액을 통해 상권의 유형 분류및 업종특화도를 분석하여 상권 다양화 시스템을 도출하는 데에 그 목적이 있다. 연구 결과 매출액의흐름을 기반으로 상권 활성 유형을 4가지 (활성, 회복, 유지, 쇠퇴)로 분류하였으며 LQ 지수 분석결과하나의 업종만이 특화될수록 상권은 쇠퇴하기에 COVID-19 이후 집적경제의 불이익이 발생하였다. 나아가 상권 다양화 지수 및 머신러닝 기반 다양화 시스템을 구축하였으며 상권별 추천 업종 도출을 통해회복탄력적 상권 구축을 위한 업종을 제시하였다. 이에 본 연구결과는 다양화 전략 수립을 위한 기초자료등에 활용될 것이며, 사회적 재난 상황에서 업종 간 연결성 증진을 위한 회복탄력적 골목상권 구축방안으로 활용할 수 있을 것이라 기대한다.

Abstract

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the contraction of daily external activities has caused a direct economic impact on alley market districts, and it is necessary to build a resilient alley market to prevent the collapse of the local economy. This study aims to derive a market diversification system by analyzing the cluster classification and industry specialization of the market through the pre- and post-COVID-19 sales of alley markets in subway station areas. Based on the flow of sales, the study classified commercial districts into four types: active, recovering, maintaining, and declining. Through the analysis of the LQ index, we found that the more specialized the market, the more it declines and is disadvantaged by the post-COVID-19 agglomeration economy. Furthermore, the diversification index, a machine learning-based diversification system, was established in order to build a resilient market district by deriving the recommended industries for each market. The findings can be used as a basis for providing diversification strategies and as a method for constructing resilient alley markets to promote connectivity between industries in social disaster situations.

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