국제 자발적 탄소시장 크레딧 가격 결정요인분석 - 수요측면에서 -
An Emprical Analysis of Global Emission Offset Price Determinants on Voluntary Carbon Market - Focusing on Demand Factor -
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초록
본 연구에서는 몇몇 선행연구에 따라 배출권 가격요인에 유의미한 결과로 제시된 1) 기온변수 2) 경제변수 3) 에너지변수들이 마찬가지로 자발적 탄소시장 크레딧 가격(CGEO, AGEO, NGEO, SPGEO)에 유의미한 영향을 끼치는지 분석하고자 한다. 자기회귀시차분포모형(ARDL, Autoregressive Distributed Lag)을이용해 동태적인 관계를 추정하고 각 변수들과 배출권 크레딧 가격 사이 공적분 검증에 따라 단기및 장기 관계를 실증분석한다. 이 연구를 통해 시사하는 점은 첫째, 전력가격은 크레딧 가격에 단기적으로 양(+)의 관계을 보였지만, 장기적으로 음(-)의 관계가 나타났다. 둘째, 규제적 탄소시장 가격과 비교했을 때, 크레딧 가격은 기온변수 즉, 지역적 날씨에 많은 영향을 받는다. 셋째, 에너지변수는 규제 배출권거래제와 자발적 탄소 크레딧을 포함한 모든 탄소 시장에서 가장 중요한 변수이다. 앞으로 잠재적인 자발적탄소시장에서 기업이 탄소중립을 목표로 크레딧을 구매할 때, 대외적 상황들을 종합적으로 고려해 전략을 세울 것을 시사하는 바이다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the correlation between voluntary carbon market credit prices and three key sets of variables. Prior research on compliance carbon markets has identified these factors as a significant influence on emission price factors. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to test these relationships and empirically examines short and long term correlations by conducting cointegration tests between each variable and the emission credit price. The results of the study are as follows:First, electricity prices exhibit a positive relationship with credit prices in the short term but a negative relationship in the long term. Second, compared to regulatory carbon market prices, credit prices are influenced by temperature variables, reflecting local weather conditions. Third, the energy variable emerges as the most crucial factor impacting prices in both compliance emissions trading systems and voluntary carbon credits. This implies that companies aiming for carbon neutrality through voluntary carbon market credits must develop comprehensive strategies that consider various external circumstances.
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