경찰력 증강과 경찰활동 강화가 범죄발생 억제효과에 미치는 영향에 대한 ARIMA 시계열분석
Impact of Variation in Police Strength and Increases in Police Patrol on Crime Deterrence : ARIMA Time Series Analysis
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초록
박근혜 정부는 학교 폭력, 성폭력, 가정 폭력,불량식품을 사회 4대 악으로 선정하고 이를 척결하기 위한 전방위적 노력의 일환으로 5년 동안 매해 4천 명씩 총 2만 명의 경찰공무원 증원을계획․시행하고있다. 경찰인력의 증원을 통한 경찰력 증강이 범죄를 억제할 수 있다는 주장은 강력한 설득력을가지는 것처럼 보인다. 하지만 경찰력 증강과범죄억제 효과 간의 실증적 연구에서는 이들간의 인과성에 대한 논의는 다르게 나타나고있다. 즉 경찰과 범죄억제 간의 관계에 관한논의에 따르면, 이론적으로 경찰력 증강이 범죄를 감소시키는 것이 당연하지만 실증적 분석에서 연구결과가 상이하여 미국에서 1970년대이후현재까지도논쟁의 대상이되고있다. 경찰과 범죄억제 간의 관계에 관한 국내 연구는 매우 미흡한 실정에 있다. 때문에 경찰과범죄억제 간의 인과성에 관하여 외국 선행연구에 지나치게 의존함으로써 학자들마다 이에대한 상이한 주장을 하는 경향이 적지 않다. 즉범죄를억제하기 위해경찰인력을증강하는방식의 전략 선택에 대해서도 논란이 없지 않는실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 경찰이 범죄를 억제하는데 있어서 어떠한영향을미치는지를실증적으로검증하고자 한다. 즉 경찰력 증강과 경찰활동 강화가 범죄를억제하는데효과가 있는 지를 밝혀보고자 한다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 49년간의 시계열 데이터를 수집하여 ARIMA 모형을활용한 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 경찰력의 측정변수는 경찰인력과 경찰예산을 그리고 경찰활동의 측정변수는 범인검거 건수를 선정하였으며범죄발생 건수를 범죄억제의 측정변수로 활용하였다. 분석결과, 경찰활동은 유의수준 0.01에서범죄억제에 유의미한 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타난 반면에 경찰력 증강은 범죄억제에유의미한 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는 경찰조직이 범죄 예방 및 억제를 위한 해결방안으로써 경찰인력 증원에 지나치게의존하기보다는 범인을 효과적으로 체포하기 위한 방안 마련에 더 정책적 관심과 의지를 가지는것이바람직할수있음을시사한다.
Abstract
Police are in the front line of fighting crime. Does police have acausal relationship with crime deterrence? The effect of crimedeterrence is one of the rationales behind the proposition that policecan reduce crime. According to the proposition, there are the apparentnegative effects of increasing police strength and reinforcing policeactivities on crime rates. So one of the most common strategies in thewar against crime is to increase police manpower levels. There havebeen, however, constant controversies on the causal relationshipbetween police and crime deterrence effect since empirical studieshave showed the different results that especially a reinforcement ofpolice strength has no effect on reducing crimes or a positive influenceon crime rates. The Park administration has been increasing the number of policein order to exterminate 4 evils as one of the strategies in the waragainst crimes since 2013. However, there are some disputes related tothis government's measure. The empirical studies to investigate thecorrelation and causation between police and crime deterrence havebeen lack significantly in Korean background, so it is not easy to make sure the effect of police on crime deterrence. When consideringthe analytical results from a lot of the empirical studies to investigatethe causal relationship between police and crime deterrence, it is truethat there is s strong doubt over whether the increase in policemanpower implemented by The Park administration can contribute toreduce the number of crimes including 4 evils. In the context, this study investigates the effect of police onreducing crimes. That is to say, the purpose of this study is toinvestigate the effect of the strength of police and policy activity oncrime deterrence. This study employs an ARIMA time-seriesregression analysis to verify the causal relationship between police andcrime deterrence effect by analyzing the data collected from 1964 to2012. As result, the study reveals that the policy activity has a negativeinfluence on crime deterrence, while the police strength does not havea significance. The analysis shows that the reinforcement of policestrength does not affect the decrease in crime rates. The policy implication of this study is that a police organizationshould make bigger efforts to establish the effective measures forimproving the rates of criminal arrests in order to reduce the numberof crimes instead of giving more policy attention to the reinforcementof police strength as one of the most common strategies in the waragainst crime.
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