자동요금징수시스템(Hi-Pass) 이용률 분석을 활용한 추정모형개발

Abstract

It is more important than demand forecasting on future users in order to continuously expand and supply ETCS (Electronic Toll Collection Systems) with the limited resources available at a suitable time and place. In order to forecast accurate demand, it is urgently needed to understand the pros and cons of analysis method actively and to develop demand forecasting models based on the complementary method about this. Therefore, this study have developed the newly estimating models of Hi-Pass utilization on the basis of reviewing various analysis methods and conducted a case study. And it suggested implications on the domestic future utilization of Hi-Pass. First of all, this study have developed and applied the estimation models of utilization, comprehensively taking into account in trend line analysis (a logistic model), a survey to set up the limitation (intention of purchase, Urban & Houser) and a case study on similar area (Japan) for establishing analysis method. In the future, utilization rate of approximate 60~69% is expected throughout the nation. And Honam head office is expected to have the highest percentage of around 62~70%. In accordance with these results, it is able to be realized that the domestic rate of increase will accomplish in 6 years and the utilization rate comes close to that of Japan where 8 years passed since it has introduced. Thus it comes to the conclusion that preparing facilities and operation strategy of demand on High-Pass is indispensible.