Russia and Ukraine : The historical process and prospect of their relations

Abstract

This article aims to review the bilateral rivalry and partnership in a historical perspective and to offer an outlook of how their relationship will unfold in the future, based on the longitudinal approach and multi-layered analysis. From a macro-perspective, Russia-Ukraine relationship has been characterized by alternately repeating rivalry and partnership and it has evolved into what it is today through four major phases. In the first phase of ‘forced separation’(1240-1654), the Mongol Tatar invasion caused a cleavage in the Slavic community, separating Russia and Ukraine. In the following phase of ‘voluntary integration’(1654-1917), Ukraine was freed from the Mongolian rule and subsequently subjugated by Poland before it chose to place itself under Russian leadership in the mid 17th century to save itself from the Polish rule. During the ‘forced assimilation period’(1917-1991) which coincided with the Soviet era, much of Ukrainian identity was lost in the aggressive Russification drive. From the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 up to now, Ukraine and Russia have maintained a precarious balance between fragile partnership and lingering conflicts. The distrust and hostility deeply rooted in the minds of Ukranians throughout its history underlie the lingering conflicts it has got into with Russia ever since the Soviet Union was dissolved. In short, anti-Russian sentiment held by Ukranians derived primarily from Russia's colonial rule over Ukraine. In addition to this historical background, the bilateral relations have become complicated by a closely-knit web of political, economic, strategic, geopolitical and national security factors. In light of Ukraine's negative sentiment toward Russia, domestic and external circumstances facing both Russia and Ukraine, a complicated web of multiple-layered national interests that are closely intertwined between the two countries, geopolitical significance of Ukraine in Central and East Region and the CIS region, and fierce rivalry between the U.S. and Russia to sway more influence over Ukraine, Russia and Ukraine will likely choose either to cooperate or clash, depending on individual issues while respecting the boundaries set by their state sovereignty. Considering the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Eurasia, Ukraine will likely remain a buffer zone between the East and the West for the time being.