본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

At the Epicenter: Türkiye's Double-Hedging Strategies as Geopolitical Middle-Ground State

진은선|서현준
중동연구소 (Institute of Middle East Studies, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Forei)|2023.03|중동연구|제41권 제3호|pp. 125-162

0

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

지정학Geopolitics튀르키예Türkiye지정학적 중간국Geostrategic Fault LineGeopolitical Middle-ground StateDouble-Hedging.지정학적 단층지대이중 헤징

초록

What explains the Turkish government's growing political autonomy in both the domestic and foreign policies? As of January 2023, the Turkish military administration and the Syrian Interim Government share dual authority over the northern areas of Aleppo, Raqqa, and Hasakah. Previous studies tend to explain the Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria with the classic alliance formation theories. However, the AKP does not depend entirely on the US or Russia to pursue its interests. Thus, this research attempts to explain Türkiye's growing political autonomy by taking the following steps. First, it reviews previous studies that use Türkiye as case studies to define the term 'middle power state.' It also points out the limitation of existing literatures that explain the middle power state's behaviors with the theories on balancing or bandwagoning strategies. Second, this research provides a theoretical explanation for Türkiye's political autonomy. Third, it analyzes the case of Türkiye's recent diplomatic efforts that effectively managed the conflicts between the competing regional hegemons. It concludes that Türkiye, the 'geopolitical middle-ground state,' has adopted 'doublehedging strategies' to achieve political autonomy. This autonomy allowed Türkiye to conduct military operations on foreign soil without any meaningful payoff and to justify its actions against the Kurdish population at home.

Abstract

What explains the Turkish government's growing political autonomy in both the domestic and foreign policies? As of January 2023, the Turkish military administration and the Syrian Interim Government share dual authority over the northern areas of Aleppo, Raqqa, and Hasakah. Previous studies tend to explain the Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria with the classic alliance formation theories. However, the AKP does not depend entirely on the US or Russia to pursue its interests. Thus, this research attempts to explain Türkiye's growing political autonomy by taking the following steps. First, it reviews previous studies that use Türkiye as case studies to define the term 'middle power state.' It also points out the limitation of existing literatures that explain the middle power state's behaviors with the theories on balancing or bandwagoning strategies. Second, this research provides a theoretical explanation for Türkiye's political autonomy. Third, it analyzes the case of Türkiye's recent diplomatic efforts that effectively managed the conflicts between the competing regional hegemons. It concludes that Türkiye, the 'geopolitical middle-ground state,' has adopted 'doublehedging strategies' to achieve political autonomy. This autonomy allowed Türkiye to conduct military operations on foreign soil without any meaningful payoff and to justify its actions against the Kurdish population at home.

참고문헌 (57)

  1. "Air Operation Claw-Sword: Turkish jets hit terror targets in northern areas of Iraq, Syria"[URL]
  2. Alim, E., "Strategic hedging in the Black Sea : The case of Turkey versus Russia", Comparative Strategy, 41(5), pp.459~482 (2022)
  3. Altunışık, M. B., "The trajectory of a modified middle power: An attempt to make sense of Turkey's foreign policy in its Centennial", Turkish Studies, pp.1~15 (2022)
  4. Bardakçı, M., "Is a strategic partnership between Turkey and Russia feasible at the expense of Turkey's relations with the EU and NATO?", Comparative Southeast European Studies, 69(4), pp.535~559 (2021)
  5. Batalla Adam, L., "The EU-turkey deal one year on : A delicate balancing act", The International Spectator, 52(4), pp.44~58 (2017)
  6. "Desperate Putin portrays Ukraine and the west as 'satanic'" (2022)[URL]
  7. Cetinsaya, G., "Contentious Issues of Security and the Future of Turkey", pp.5~18 (2018)
  8. Cheng-Chwee, K., "The essence of hedging: Malaysia and Singapore' s response to a rising China", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 30(2), pp.159~185 (2008)
  9. "Kennan's warning on Ukraine" (2023)[URL]
  10. "For NATO, Turkey is a disruptive ally" (2022)[URL]
  11. Daily Sabah, "Erdoğan gives order for claw-sword operation against PKK targets", ~ (2022)
  12. Daily Sabah, "Türkiye conducts air raids against PKK terror targets in Iraq, Syria", ~ (2022)
  13. "Turkey alleges us complicity in deadly Istanbul bombing, rejects condolence statement" (2022)[URL]
  14. Frantzman, Seth. J., "Turkey threatens new ethnic-cleansing invasion of Syria – analysis", The Jerusalem Post, ~ (2022)
  15. Fassihi, F., "Three more ships carrying grain depart from Ukraine", The New York Times, ~ (2022)
  16. "Turkstream: Russia's Southern Pipeline to Europe" (2021)[URL]
  17. Gentile, M., "Geopolitical fault-line cities in the world of divided cities", Political Geography, 71, pp.126~138 (2019)
  18. "The U.S.-YPG relationship: US Foreign Policy & the future of the Kurds in Syria and Turkey"[URL]
  19. "The Dangerous Decade" (2022)[URL]
  20. "Cooperation, competition, and compartmentalization: Russian-Turkish relations and their implications for the West" (2021)[URL]
  21. 홍미정, "이스라엘", 아랍국가들 평화협정: 팔레스타인인들의 주권 박탈, 2022, pp.40(3), 109~140[DOI]
  22. Hubbard, B., "US presses partners to weed out illicit trade with Russia", The New York Times, ~ (2023)
  23. Jin, E. S., "(The) US-Iran nuclear negotiation stalemate from G. W. Bush to Trump: interactions between international negotiators and their domestic constituen", Master’s, pp.2022
  24. "Turkey strengthens defense industry with its Ukraine partnership" (2022)[URL]
  25. 강선주, "중견국 이론화의 이슈와 쟁점", 국제정치논총, 55(1), pp.137~174 (2015), 한국국제정치학회
  26. 김대성, "터키 테러리즘과 쿠르드 문제: 시대별 특징과 글로벌 & 로컬 요인을 중심으로", 중동연구, 37(1), pp.1~30 (2018), 중동연구소
  27. Kirişci K., "Turkey and the West: Fault Lines in a troubled alliance" (2018), Brookings Institution Press
  28. 이수형, "동아시아 안보질서에서 강대국과 중견국의 헤징전략", 한국과 국제정치, 28(3), pp.1~29 (2012), 극동문제연구소[DOI]
  29. Litsas, S. N., "Bandwagoning for profit and Turkey:Alliance formations and volatility in the Middle Ea", Israel Affairs, 20(1), pp.125~139 (2014)
  30. "Turkey's Erdogan vows to create 'safe zone' in Syria" (2022)[URL]
  31. Martin, L. G., "The future of Turkish Foreign Policy" (2011), TPB
  32. "Faulty powers" (2022)[URL]
  33. "The return of geopolitics" (2023)[URL]
  34. "Why the Ukraine crisis is the West's fault" (2023)[URL]
  35. Oktav, Ö. Z., "The Syrian Refugee Challenge and Turkey's quest for normative power in the Middle East", International Journal : Canada's Journal of Global Policy Analysis, 70(3), pp.408~420 (2015)
  36. "Erdogan: Russia attack on Ukraine 'heavy blow' to regional peace" (2022)[URL]
  37. "Turkey closes the Dardanelles and bosphorus to warships" (2022)[URL]
  38. Parlar Dal, E., "Assessing Turkey's changing conflict management role after the Cold War : Actorness, Approaches and Tools", Third World Quarterly, 39(12), pp.2291~2314 (2018)
  39. 박주성, "KDP, PKK의 정치이념과 쿠르드 민족주의에 관한 연구", 중동연구, 35(1), pp.1~40 (2016), 중동연구소
  40. Paul, T. V., "Soft balancing in the age of US primacy", International Security, 30(1), pp.46~71 (2005)
  41. "The war in Ukraine and its impact on Russia-Iran relations" (2022)[URL]
  42. "Press statement on the phone call between Presidential spokesperson i̇brahim Kalın and US National Security advisor Jake Sullivan" (2022)[URL]
  43. "Repatriation to Turkey's "safe zone" in Northeast Syria" (2020)[URL]
  44. Schmidinger, T., "The Kurds in Erdogan's "new" Turkey: Domestic and international implications" (2022), Routledge, Taylor et Francis Group
  45. Schweller, R. L., "Bandwagoning for profit : Bringing the revisionist state back in", International Security, 19(1), pp.72~107 (1994)
  46. "The global zeitenwende" (2023)[URL]
  47. 신범식, "지정학적 중간국 우크라이나의 대외전략적 딜레마", 국제.지역연구, 29(1), pp.37~69 (2020), 국제학연구소[DOI]
  48. "Ukraine holds the future" (2023)[URL]
  49. Sucu, A. E., "Transformation of middle powers with the decline of world hegemony : The case of Turkey", Strategic Analysis, 45(4), pp.307~320 (2021)
  50. "Joint statement on the U.S.-Türkiye Strategic Mechanism" (2023)[URL]
  51. "US relations with Turkey(Türkiye)" (2023)[URL]
  52. "Joint Operations Centre Black Sea Grain Initiative in Türkiye"[URL]
  53. "2022 special 301 report"[URL]
  54. "Turkey's Erdogan to talk Kabul Airport Control, S-400s with Biden" (2021)[URL]
  55. 유재광, "기로에선 중견국: ‘능력-의지 연계모델’을 통해 본 터키 중견국 외교 부침(浮沈) 연구", 국제정치논총, 60(1), pp.99~153 (2020), 한국국제정치학회[DOI]
  56. Özpek, B. B., "The state's changing role regarding the Kurdish question of Turkey : From consistent tutelage to volatile securitization", Alternatives : Global, Local, Political, 44(1), pp.35~49 (2019)
  57. Đidić, A., "Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia : Assertive bandwagoning", The International Spectator, 54(3), pp.123~138 (2019)

관련 논문AI추천

Foreign and Domestic Objectives in Turkish Approaches to Changes in Global OrderLawrence, Robert한국중동학회 · 한국중동학회논총2024 · 제45권 제2호Turco-Iranian Alignment: Balancing or Bandwagoning with the US?김재천, William Kang국제학연구소 · Journal of International and Area Studies2016 · 제23권 제1호Deteriorating U.S.-Turkish Relations: A Critical Juncture ApproachLAWRENCE ROBERT EDMOND중동문제연구소 · 중동문제연구2021 · 제20권 제1호Decoding Turkey’s Lust for Regional Clout in the Middle East: A Role Theory PerspectiveŞevket Ovalı국제학연구소 · Journal of International and Area Studies2013 · 제20권 제1호터키의 다자주의를 통한 중견국 전략이지은중동문제연구소 · 중동문제연구2015 · 제14권 제2호Foreign Policy Strategies of Taiwan between China and the United States: Bandwagon or HedgingHung-Chang Chung, Shih-Kai Lin한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2025 · 제37권 제1호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (7건)

미·중 전략경쟁 국면에서의 중국·아프가니스탄 외교 관계 분석백승훈, 이창주pp. 1-30러시아의 개입과 시리아의 정권 생존서정민pp. 31-58بررسي عوامل و ويژگي پسا اسلام گرايي유달승pp. 59-100천연가스 경유국, 수입국, 수출국의 교섭력 분석: 터키를 중심으로이아람, 김정환pp. 101-124한국의 짓가림제와 이슬람의 무다라바 비교 연구김동환pp. 163-182
원문 보기