중·러 경제 협력의 변화와 특성: 무역, 투자, 금융을 중심으로

Abstract

In this paper, we sought to examine the changes and characteristics of complementary economic cooperation between China and Russia and to derive the future prospects and implications for the Korean Peninsula. To implement this aim, this study analyzed the characteristics of trade between China and Russia using the Trade Specialization Index, which is the annual trade-related data of China and Russia from 2000 to 2018. China's exports to Russia shifted from a clothing-oriented light industry export structure from 2004 to 2008, to a high-tech, high-value added products-oriented export structure from 2014 to 2018. On the other hand, Russia's exports to China have continued to be based on raw materials, and with the opening of the China-Russia oil pipeline, Russian oil exports to China have increased since 2014. In the field of investment, however, both countries do not see each other as an ideal investment target, with less than 3% of each other's investment compared to global investment (ODI). After the Ukraine crisis, Russia was sanctioned by the U.S. and the EU, and China was also pressured by the U.S. after the Trump administration began. China and Russia are strengthening their financial cooperation to secure independence from the U.S.-centered international financial system and reduce dependence on the dollar. Furthermore, China and Russia have started to implement financial cooperation, including an electronic payment system, collaboration on Renminbi’s internationalization, and collaboration among financial institutions. In the future, the two countries' biggest concerns regarding economic cooperation will be Russian energy exports to mainland China, China’s Russian energy development and related investments. However, as the mechanism of high-level cooperation between the governments continues to operate, cooperation will be strengthened in various areas such as e-commerce, agriculture, finance, science, technology, innovation, digital economy, health, and 5G. The Republic of Korea (ROK) should prevent Russia's tilt toward China on the Korean Peninsula, following the strengthening of economic cooperation between China and Russia. The ROK needs to internalize its cooperation policy in Far East Russia before it completely loses its leadership in economic cooperation in Far East Russia to China. Even for Russia, China's overwhelming economic expansion in the Far East will not be sweet. Therefore, the ROK should also seek ways to cooperate in terms of finding new industries in the Far East, expanding its value chain, expanding the Korean Peninsula's economic sphere, and strengthening Eurasian and Arctic connectivity. At the same time, bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the three northeastern provinces (Heilongjiang province, Jilin province, Liaoning province) of mainland China, which are subject to cooperation from China adjacent to Far East Russia, should be considered at the same time.