국제 무역 관점의 탄소배출권 거래전략
Carbon Trading Strategies from the Perspective of International Trade
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연구목적: 본 연구의 목적은 국제 무역 관점에서 청정개발체제를 중심으로 탄소배출권 사업내 위험 유형을 사업위험과 탄소배출권 위험으로 구분하고 탄소배출권 사업자의 참여 전략, 배출권 거래 전략, 배출권 가격전략, 사후적 위험 대응전략 등의 의사결정을 지원하는 것이다. 이를 통하여 기후변화협약 및 국내 배출권거래제도 하에서 온실가스 감축목표를 효율적으로 달성하는데 궁극적인 목적이 있다. 논문구성/논리: 본 연구는 전체 네 장으로 구성되어 있다. 첫 번째 장에서는 본 연구의 배경과 목적을 설명하며, 두 번째 장에서는 탄소배출권 사업에 대한 연구의 흐름을 검토하고 산업적 니즈와 비교하여 탄소배출권 위험 유형에 기반한 연구모형을 수립하여 사례연구 분석틀을 도출하였다. 세 번째 장에서는 국내 기업이 중국에 진출하여 추진한 국제 탄소배출권 사업을 중심으로 네 가지 위험유형에 대한 사례연구를 수행하였고, 마지막 장에서는 결론 및 향후 연구에 대한 시사점을 제시하였다. 결과: 사례연구를 통하여 전통적인 사업개발, 금융, 시공 및 운영과정에서 발생하는 위험과 탄소배출권 고유의 등록, 발행, 거래 과정에서 발생하는 위험을 평가하였다. 이에 따라 사업단계에 대한 참여방식과 역할에 따른 참여방식이 달라질 수 있음을 확인하고 탄소배출권 거래전략 수립 시 선도거래 전략, 가격전략, 개별사업에 특화된 다양한 위험관리 방식을 분석하였다. 독창성/가치: 탄소배출권 사업에 대한 기존연구는 거시적인 측면의 투자수익성 연구나 지속가능성 관점의 정책적 연구에 집중되어 있었다. 본 연구에서는 사업자들의 현실적인 의사결정 시점에 초점을 맞추어 탄소배출권 사업정보에 기반한 위험평가를 통하여 해외 사업참여 및 국제 탄소배출권 거래전략을 수립하는데 유용한 이론적 분석틀을 제시하였다는 점에서 차별성이 있다.
Abstract
Purpose: The study aims to classify the risks involved in clean development mechanism projects into business and carbon risks, and support the decision-making of business participation, international carbon trade strategy, carbon price strategy, and post-risk management. In addition, the national target of greenhouse gas reduction can be achieved more efficiently, based on the carbon risk management framework. Composition/Logic: The paper consists of four chapters. The first chapter explains the background and objectives of this study. The research model for the case study in the second chapter is developed based on the project risk. Chapter three analyzes four case studies on the clean development mechanism in China as implemented by a domestic developer. The final chapter summarizes the results from the cases with research and practical implications, and suggests directions for future research. Findings: Four case studies show the traditional risks of business development, finance, construction, and operations, as well as carbon credit risks through registration, issuance, and trading processes. Participants in carbon businesses play different roles in consideration of project risks and carbon trading strategies, including forward contract and pricing decisions, which are also dependent on risk profiles. Originality/Value: Existing literature on carbon business has focused on the return on investment or sustainable development in the views of the macro economy or policy levels. This study explores risk analysis and decision making with project information on practical cases. The results support domestic firms in developing their own international carbon trading strategies with a theory-driven framework.
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