중․고령자의 노동시장지위 변화 유형화: 중심추세모형(Group-based Trajectory Model)을 중심으로
The Patterns of the labor force participation among the Middle old aged in South Korea: the application of Group-based Trajectory Model
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초록
본 연구는 1997년 경제위기 이후 10년간 우리나라 중․고령층의 경제활동참여 유형을 분석하였다. 한국노동패널 1998-2008년 자료를 활용하여 집단중심추세모형을 적용한 경제활동 유형화 분석에서, 학력, 성별, 그리고 출생코호트가 중․고령층의 경제활동유형을 결정하는데 주된 요인으로 분석되었으며, 중․고령층의 은퇴 후 또는 주된 일자리에서 퇴직 후 경제활동 유형은 모두 7가지로 유형화되었다. 분석결과에 따르면, 고학력집단은 퇴직 후 노동시장에 참여할 가능성은 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 저학력 여성 집단은 남성과 고학력 여성 집단에 비해 경제활동 참여가능성은 높으나, 일시근로와 비경활 상태로 진입할 위험이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 중․고령층이 은퇴를 기점으로 학력과 성별에 상관없이 노동시장에 참여할 가능성이 낮다는 본 연구결과는 자산과 연금이 확보가 안 된 중․고령층은 학력과 상관없이 빈곤의 위험에 노출될 가능성이 높다는 점을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study aims to conceptualizing the patterns of the labor force participation and analyzing the determinants of the each pattern among the middle old aged with a special attention to the gender, education, and family asset effects. Using the Korea Labor and Employment Panel 1998-2008, this study has found seven typologies of the labor force participation among the elderly with the application of the group-based trajectory models:(1)consistently out of the LF, (2)early out of the LF, (3)short-term employment, (4)late entry to the LF, (5)consistently staying in self-employed or small-business, (6)retired from regular employment, (7)staying in regular employment. The results show that highly educated middle old aged are more likely than others to stay out of the labor market after the retirement while they have exhibited better economic stability than others at the timing of the retirement. Further, less educated women are more likely than other women and men to be employment, but are likely to experience nonstandard or intermittent employment. These findings highlight that the Korean labor market is not friendly to highly educated middle old aged who wish to get employment and thus they tend to take the risk of getting in poverty after the retirement. Altogether, this study emphasizes the importance of the policy to promote the chances to enter the labor market after retirement for the elderly given that most elderly tend to spend unemployed for 10-20 years on average after retirement.
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