역수요모형과 한국육류시장의 수요분석
Inverse Demand Models and Analysis of the Korean Meat Market Demand
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초록
최근 역수요모형과 그 후생분석에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 기존연구들은 역수요모형과 통상적 수요모형을 별도로 취급하여 별도의 수요분석과 해석을 하여왔다. 본 연구는 기존연구와 차별적으로 두 모형의 수요분석을 통합하려는 최초의 시도로서 한국육류시장에서의 수요반응이 단기적으로 수요강도에 의해 가격이 결정될 때 그러한 시장수요를 역수요모형으로 추정하고, 그 결과로부터 개별 소비자의 반응을 유추할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였다. 실증분석으로서 우리나라의 대표적 육류시장에 대한 자료를 이용하여 역수요모형을 추정하고, 역수요모형의 시장반응을 개인소비자반응으로 변환하고 해석할 수 있는 방법을 실제추정을 통하여 보여주었다. 추정결과는 쇠고기가 사치재적 성격을, 돼지고기와 닭고기가 필수재적 성격을 보여주었고, 쇠고기와 돼지고기가 가격 비유동적, 닭고기가 가격유동적이었다. 추정결과로부터 도출된 소득탄력성은 모든 육류들의 역수요모형의 추정결과와 동일한 해석이 가능했으며, 가격탄력성은 모두 가격비탄력적이었다. 본 연구가 제시한 한국육류시장의 모형과 방법론들이 농수축산물관리정책의 수립에 보완적으로 사용될 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 토지와 주택, 공공재와 환경재 수요 등의 다양한 분야에 활용될 수 있을 것이다.
Abstract
Recently there has been increasing interest on inverse demand models and their welfare analyses. The classical demand models and inverse demand models have developed separately in theory and practice of the existing literature. In contrast, this paper synthesizes the analyses of the two models as a first attempt in the literature. The paper analyzes the meat market in Korea by the inverse demand model. It also shows how one can deduce the consumer’s responses from the market responses when the markets determine the prices by the quantities demanded. It illustrates empirically how this can be done applying to the Korean meat market data. The empirical results show that beef is a luxury good while pork and chicken are necessary goods. It also shows that beef and pork are inflexible in price while chicken is flexible in price. The consumers’ responses transformed from the estimated results of inverse demand models show that all meats are inelastic in demand. The methodology and illustration used in the paper will make a contribution to the existing literature as a complement of implementing the policies to manage the meat markets.
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