産業聯關模型에서 經濟的 波及效果의 過大推定은 왜 發生하는가? 새로운 “産出？産出模型”을 통한 代案을 中心으로
Why Does the Overestimation of Economic Impact Occur in the Input-Output Model? Based on an Alternative through a New “Output-Output Model”
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개방형 정태 투입·산출모형에서 레온티에프 역행렬은 외생적인 최종수요 변화 에 대한 내생부문의 (직·간접)산출요구량을 추계하는 데 매우 유익하게 사용되 고 있다. 그러나 최종수요가 아니라 산출물의 변화에 대한 (직·간접)산출요구량 을 계산하기 위하여 레온티에프 역행렬을 그대로 사용하게 되면 내생 중간수요에 대한 이중 계산으로 경제적 제반 파급효과가 과대추정된다는 사실이 밝혀지게 되 었다. 본 논문에서는 우선적으로 “파급효과의 과대추정은 왜 발생하는가?”에 대해 서 원인 규명을 하고자 한다. 최근 이러한 과대추정에 대한 대안적 승수로 개발된 “순승수” 개념의 한계와 부문 사이의 “연속적 연결”의 문제를 집중적으로 분석하고 자 한다. 아울러 경제학 문헌에서 나타나고 있는 파급효과에 대한 과대추정 및 연 속적 연결에 대한 오해 사례를 제시하고자 한다. 이러한 실제적 오해 사례에 대한 새로운 대안 모형으로서 “산출·산출모형”을 개발하고자 한다. 산출·산출모형은 레온티에프 역행렬의 요인별 분해를 통하여 총산출과 최종산출 사이의 새로운 승 수적 인과관계를 밝힌 것이다. 따라서 산출·산출모형을 통하여 산출물에 대한 제반 파급효과를 과대추정 및 연속적 연결에 대한 우려없이 편리하게 추계할 수 있게 되었다.
Abstract
The concept of net multipliers, as introduced by Oosterhaven and Stelder(2002), accepts outputs as entries instead of final demand to avoid the overestimation of the importance of the sector at hand. However, this new concept only makes the real meaning of the multipliers meaningless and trivial. It was clearly shown by Gim(2007) and de Mesnard(2007) that net multipliers have the homogeneous characteristics with no causal relation between the cause(endogenous or exogenous outputs) and the effect(total output requirements). And also it is obvious that there is “consecutive connection” between the Leontief inverse [기호] and the final demand f, but that there is no consecutive connection between the inverse [기호] and the total output x. The primary aim of this paper is to present a clear interrelation of the Leontief inverse with final demand and total output and to propose another alternative input-output multipliers based on “the output-output model,” developed by the author, which can solve overestimation and consecutive connection problems naturally together. I hope that the findings and results obtained from the output-output model can also be utilized in many different input-output areas.
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