자본개방과 램지모형
Capital Opening and Ramsey Model
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초록
신고전적 성장이론에 기반한 램지모형을 통해 분석한 자본개방의 파급효과를 음미한다. 균제상태의 폐쇄경제가 국제금리보다 높을 때 자본개방은 내외금리차를해소하는 자본유입이 소비수준을 높이며 뒤이은 경상수지적자는 소비증가율을국내외 금리차만큼 떨어뜨리는 요인으로 각각 작용한다. 이와 같은 소비흐름의패턴을 고려할 때 자본개방 시 무역수지적자가 일어나는 것은 당연한 귀결일 수있다. 한편 국내금리가 국제금리보다 낮아 자본개방 시 자본유출이 일어날 때 소비흐름과 대외수지는 자본유입이 일어나는 경우와 정반대의 패턴을 보인다. 이와같은 분석결과는 소비평활화 등 상식적 견해에 따른 자본개방의 혜택보다는 오히려 대외수지악화 등 경제적 불균형을 강조하는 신흥국 자본개방의 비관론에 더가깝다. 다만 본고에서 수지적자는 자본개방의 혜택을 반영하는 것에 다름없다는데 차이가 있다. 램지모형을 통해서 해석할 때 일부 신흥국의 경상수지흑자는 불확실성이 존재하는 차선의 세계에서 저축의 예비적 동기에 따른 현상이며 자기보험으로서 보유외환을 쌓는 것과 맥락을 같이 한다.
Abstract
This paper explores the impact of capital opening in a small open economy based on Ramsey model. In the neo-classical framework when the autarky interest rate is higher than the foreign interest rate, capital opening triggers immediate capital inflows in order to exploit an arbitrage opportunity. The economy moves to new saddle point path. Both capital stock and consumption discretely increase. An increase in lifetime income supports such consumption increase. Moving to the new saddle path per capita consumption decreases at the rate of the autarky and foreign interest difference. As consumption decreases trade account turns into positive, but current account is negative, always. In steady state external debt grows constantly. When the autarky interest rate is lower than the foreign rate, all adjustment processes will be the opposite. The results of this analysis are closer to the pessimism of capital opening in emerging economies that emphasizes economic imbalances such as external account worsening rather than the benefits of capital opening due to common sense views such as consumption smoothing. Here, the deficit in this paper reflects the benefits of capital opening. The current account surplus in some emerging economies is a phenomenon due to the precautionary motivation of savings in a second best world, which is in line with building up foreign exchange reserves as self-insurance.
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