코로나19 대응 아동돌봄쿠폰 지급이 가구소비지출에 미친 효과
The Effect of Child Support Payment Coupons in Response to COVID-19 on Household Spending
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이 논문은 코로나19로 인한 어려움을 겪는 가구를 지원하기 위해 지급된 아동돌봄쿠폰이 가구소비지출에 미친 효과를 분석하였다. 이중차분 회귀분석 결과는 아동돌봄쿠폰 지급으로 인해 가구소비지출이 10주 동안 주 평균 22,355원(지원가구 분석기간 평균 지출액의 8.8%) 증가했음을 보여준다. 아동돌봄쿠폰 지급은 아동에 대한 지원과 영세 상인 보호라는 측면에서도 긍정적인 효과가 있었다. 아동돌봄쿠폰 지급은 저소득층의 소비지출증가에 더 큰 효과가 있었으며, 상위 20% 가구의 소비지출에는 다소 약한 영향을 미쳤다. 아동돌봄쿠폰 사용은 지원이 없었을 경우 이루어졌을 가구소비지출의 일부분을 대체하였고, 순 소비진작 효과의규모(10주 기준 주 평균 22,355원)는 돌봄포인트 사용액(57,620원)과 대체효과의 규모(35,256원)의 차이에 의해 결정되었다. 지급 후 10주를 기준으로 볼 때 아동돌봄쿠폰의 순 소비진작 효과는 포인트 사용액의 약 39%로 추정되었다. 논문의 결론에서는 분석 결과가 정부지원금의 기대효과 및 설계 방향에 대해 갖는 시사점을 논의하였다.
Abstract
This paper examines the household spending effects of child support payment coupons in South Korea, which were granted to subsidize households suffering from COVID-19. The results of difference-in-differences estimation suggest that child support payment coupons increased household spending by a weekly average of 22,355 South Korean Won (KRW) over 10 weeks, which is 8.8% of the treatment group’s average consumption for the period of analysis. Child support payment coupons have positive impacts on supporting both children and small-scale business-owners. The effect on household spending is shown to be significantly larger for low-income households, compared to that of the top 20% of households. We find that coupon redemption replaces some of the household spending that would occur if there was no support from the government. The size of the net effect (weekly average of 22,355 KRW over 10 weeks) is determined by the difference between coupon redemption (57,620 KRW) and the size of the substitution effect (35,256 KRW). These results imply that the net effect of the coupons is estimated to be approximately 39% of the coupon redemption for 10 weeks. We also discuss the implications of our findings on the effects and design of government subsidies.
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