흡연율·비만율 감소 시나리오에 따른 주요 만성질환 의료비 절감 효과
Impact of reducing smoking and obesity on medical expenditures for chronic diseases
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초록
The purpose of this study is to forecast changes in the prevalence of chronic diseases and health expenditure and to test policy scenarios using the Future Elderly Model(FEM). The FEM is a Markov microsimulation model which predicts current trends and future shifts imply for policy by forecasting the future medical expenditure and health status of the elderly(Chen et al., 2014). Based on the FEM developed by Goldman et al.(2004), this study aims to explore ways to reduce spending growth associated with population aging. To achieve this goal, this study projects the size of Korean population and the prevalence of chronic diseases(hypertension, diabetes, cancer, other diseases) up to 2040 and tests smoking and obesity scenarios, using two waves(2012, 2013) of the Korea Health Panel(KHP) data and National Health Insurance Service(NHIS) database. The results of the simulated model are as follows. health expenditure decreases when policy intervention scenarios for obesity and smoking succeed. Health expenditure on chronic diseases(hypertension, diabetes, cancer) under the smoking and obesity intervention scenarios, respectively, decreases by 136,598 million won and 54,773 million won by 2020; 867,699 million won and 248,328 million won by 2030; and 1,493,707 million won and 318,299 million won by 2040. Although this study uses the coefficient estimates of transition probabilities only from two waves(2012, 2013) and focuses on three main chronic diseases(hypertension, diabetes, cancer) categorizing the rest diseases under “others,” it would serve as a meaningful foundation for future research as the first study adapting the FEM to Korea.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to forecast changes in the prevalence of chronic diseases and health expenditure and to test policy scenarios using the Future Elderly Model(FEM). The FEM is a Markov microsimulation model which predicts current trends and future shifts imply for policy by forecasting the future medical expenditure and health status of the elderly(Chen et al., 2014). Based on the FEM developed by Goldman et al.(2004), this study aims to explore ways to reduce spending growth associated with population aging. To achieve this goal, this study projects the size of Korean population and the prevalence of chronic diseases(hypertension, diabetes, cancer, other diseases) up to 2040 and tests smoking and obesity scenarios, using two waves(2012, 2013) of the Korea Health Panel(KHP) data and National Health Insurance Service(NHIS) database. The results of the simulated model are as follows. health expenditure decreases when policy intervention scenarios for obesity and smoking succeed. Health expenditure on chronic diseases(hypertension, diabetes, cancer) under the smoking and obesity intervention scenarios, respectively, decreases by 136,598 million won and 54,773 million won by 2020; 867,699 million won and 248,328 million won by 2030; and 1,493,707 million won and 318,299 million won by 2040. Although this study uses the coefficient estimates of transition probabilities only from two waves(2012, 2013) and focuses on three main chronic diseases(hypertension, diabetes, cancer) categorizing the rest diseases under “others,” it would serve as a meaningful foundation for future research as the first study adapting the FEM to Korea.
참고문헌 (23)
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