중·고령자의 주요 만성질환 유병인구 예측: Future Elderly Model을적용

Abstract

Objectives: Korea is currently facing a super-aged society. Chronic diseases, due to the required long-term treatment, cause the harsh burden not only for the patients but also for the family members who support them. Additionally, the nations with a high rate of chronic diseases often experience the heavy financial burden. Therefore, it is important to estimate the number of patients with chronic conditions in order to formulate national policies for the chronic disease prevention and management. Methods: Using the Korea Health Panel data in 2012 and 2013, this study calculates the transition probability and disease-specific mortality rates and micro-simulates the Korean population by 2040 and the number of patients with 8 leading chronic conditions. Results: The estimated results are as follows. The population with hypertension increases 2.53 times (5,713,500 in 2014 to 14,468,680 in 2040); the population with diabetes increases 1.95 times (2,616,820 in 2014 to 5,103,020 in 2040); the population with hyperlipidemia increases 1.64 times (2,956,790 in 2014 to 4,842,290 in 2040); the population with polyarthrosis increases 2.3 times (3,888,330 in 2014 to 8,934,990 in 2040); the population with tuberculosis increases 2.26 times (84,520 in 2014 to 190,700 in 2040); the population with ischaemic heart disease increases 2.39 times (888,010 in 2014 to 2,123,440 in 2040); the population with cerebrovascular disease increases 2.35 times (877,490 in 2014 to 2,063,170 in 2040); and the population with cancer increases 1.82 times (988,400 in 2014 to 1,794,790 in 2040). Conclusions: In conclusions, it showed an increase in the number of patients of all chronic diseases. This study has a significance as the first study applying the FEM to Korea, the findings of this study data are expected to be utilized as the basis for the data of chronic diseases policy and securing financial resources to prevent and manage future chronic diseases.