우리나라 고령자의 은퇴 이후 소득절벽 효과 분석
The Income Cliff Effect after Retirement in South Korea
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초록
본 연구는 고령화연구패널 을 통해 근로 생애주기의 후반부에 발생하는 급격한소득하락(“소득절벽 효과”)을 초래하는 주요인을 식별해 보았다. Heckman 2단계고정효과를 이용한 실증분석 결과 고령자의 근로소득은 만 58세부터 만 68세까지 평균적으로 약 42% 하락하는데, 연령 증가와 주된 일자리로부터의 이탈이 이러한 소득급감의 약 89%를 설명하는 것으로 추정되었다. 아울러 징검다리 일자리(bridge job)에서의 이직이 소득에 미치는 부정적 영향은 단기에 그치지만 주된일자리에서의 이직은 소득감소 폭이 클 뿐만 아니라 그 충격이 장기간 지속되는것으로 나타났다. 나아가 이와 같은 소득절벽 효과는 고학력 및 고소득 고령자를중심으로 뚜렷하게 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 분석결과는 고령자가 생애주기 기간 중 주된 일자리에서 축적한 경험 및 노하우가 사장되지 않고 노동시장에서 계속 활용될 수 있도록 정책적 지원이 강화될 필요가 있으며, 이를 통해우리나라의 높은 노인 빈곤율을 낮추는 데 기여할 수 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study utilized the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging to capture the rapid decline in income at the end of working life (“Income Cliff Effect”) and identified the main causes behind it. The empirical analysis from the Heckman 2-stage fixed-effect models reveals that the labor income of older workers decreases by an average of 42% from the age of 58 to 68, and it is estimated that aging and the separation from career jobs explain 89% of this income decline. Furthermore, while a transition to bridge-job employment has a short-term negative impact on income, a transition from a career job not only leads to a larger decrease in income but also results in a prolonged negative income shock. In particular, this income cliff effect is mainly observed among the high-education and high-income groups. These findings suggest that in order to reduce the high elderly poverty rate in Korea, support should focus on qualitative rather than quantitative aspects of post-retirement jobs for ensuring the better use of experiences and expertise acquired during their working life.
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