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Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior: Some Evidence from the Stock Market in Korea

곽승욱
사회과학연구소 (Institute of Social Sciences SOGANG UNIVERSITY)|2008.04|사회과학연구 (Journal of Social Science)|제34권 제1호|pp. 197-207|DOI 10.15820/khjss.2008.34.1.008

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키워드

Koreaoptimismherdingfinancial analystsforecast horizon
주제분류사회과학일반

초록

This paper presents some empirical analysis of analyst herding and optimism phenomena in the Korea stock market. Employing 11640 samples, I find the evidence suggest that analyst optimism is widespread across the stock market in Korea. Systematic herding behavior of analysts is also observed as analysts forecast earnings farther out into the future. For the 1988～2003 period, the mean IR unanimously decreases as the forecast period increases from the one-year to the two-year period. As observed in the US, as the forecast horizon lengthens, the forecast accuracy deteriorates.

Abstract

This paper presents some empirical analysis of analyst herding and optimism phenomena in the Korea stock market. Employing 11640 samples, I find the evidence suggest that analyst optimism is widespread across the stock market in Korea. Systematic herding behavior of analysts is also observed as analysts forecast earnings farther out into the future. For the 1988～2003 period, the mean IR unanimously decreases as the forecast period increases from the one-year to the two-year period. As observed in the US, as the forecast horizon lengthens, the forecast accuracy deteriorates.

참고문헌 (30)

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