핵무기 개발과 국가행위의 변화: 핵보유 전후의 UN총회 표결에 나타난 외교행태
The Behavior of Nuclear Armed States: The U.N. Voting Behavior before and after Nuclear Possession
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초록
본 논문은 핵무기 보유가 국가행위에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 살펴보는데 목적이 있다. 핵개발 동기와 관계없이 강력한 군사력을 보유하게 되면 외교현장에서도 보다 공세적으로 행동하게 될 것이라는 가설을 검증하고자, UN총회 결의안에서의 표결행태를 살펴보았다. 장기간의 표결 결과를 분석함으로써 국가별 입장의 유사도에 따른 덴드로그램과 특정 국가를 기준으로 한 상대적 거리의 변화를 분석하였다. UN총회 결의안 표결행태의 변화를 통해 확인한 것은 다음과 같다. 가장 두드러진 것은 기존 핵보유국들과 입장을 함께 하면서 타협적으로 행동하는데, 핵보유 여부와 시기 등에 따라 명확한 입장 차이를 보여주었다. 기존 적대국들과의 상대적 관계에서 공세적인 행동을 강화하거나 기존 후견국들로부터의 자주노선은 크게 드러나지 않았다. 본연구는 UN총회 표결을 다각적으로 활용하여 핵보유국의 행태 변화를 분석했다는 점에서 의미를 가지며, 당시 정부기관의 보고서 및 기록문서, UN총회 발표문와 논의과정 등에 대한 정성적인 해석으로 보완하는 후속연구가 요구된다.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine how possessing nuclear weapons affects national diplomatic behavior. The voting behavior at the UN is examined to verify the hypothesis that having strong military power would lead to more aggressive behavior in the diplomatic field, regardless of the motive for nuclear development. Although it has limitations in that it analyzes only their votes on specific resolutions, by analyzing the results of long-term votes, the change in dendrogram and relative distance based on specific countries can be analyzed according to the similarity of positions by country. The changes in the U.N. voting behavior were confirmed as follows. Most notably, as they join the “nuclear club” they act in a compromise with existing nuclear armed states, showing clear differences in positions depending on whether and when they have nuclear weapons. In relative relations, aggressive actions to existing adversaries or independent positions from existing guardians were not revealed significantly. This study is meaningful in that it analyzed changes in behavior of nuclear powers using the UN General Assembly vote in various ways, but it will be possible to analyze more carefully when supplemented by qualitative interpretations of reports, records, announcements, and discussions.
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