러시아의 시베리아 북극권 에너지자원 개발전략과 한 ·러 에너지산업 협력방안에 관한 연구
The Oil and Gas Development in the Russian Arctic Continental Shelf and Korea-Russia Cooperation
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2008년 미국 지질조사국(USGS)에 따르면 아직 발견되지 않은 매장량 과 현재의 최첨단 기술을 사용하여 접근 가능한 매장량을 조사한 결과, 세계 탄화수소 자원의 25%가 북극해의 얼음 밑에 있다는 것을 발견했 고, 이것은 북극 자원의 중요성을 다시 한 번 일깨워주었다. 러시아는 북극권 국가 중 단연 최대 이해당사국이다. 북극해의 절반 에 가까운 영토권을 가지고 있다. 러시아 대륙붕(북극해 연안)의 잠재적 탄화수소 자원의 예비 추정치는 900억 톤의 석탄량(coal equivalent)이며, 이 중 600억 톤은 바렌츠해와 카라해에 집중되어 있다. 지난 2009년 추 진된 ‘ 러 시 아 연 방 국 가 안 보 전 략 2020 년까지 ’는 2020년까지 러시아의 북극지방을 러시아의 ‘최고 전략적 자원기지’로서 확립하고자 하는 목 적으로 북극에 대한 러시아의 경제적 이익을 분명하게 밝혔다. 러시아 정부는 러시아 북극해의 석유와 가스 개발을 러시아 경제와 국가 전체 의 지속적인 성장을 위한 핵심으로 인식한다. 그러나 몇 가지 요인이 러시아 북극해 대륙붕의 자원 개발을 억제하 고 있다. 첫째, 전문가들의 추정에 따르면, 국제 유가가 배럴당 100달러 이하로 유지되는 동안은 북극 대륙붕 유전개발은 이익이 되지 않는 사 업이다. 둘째, 러시아 북극의 에너지 자원 개발을 평가할 때, LNG 선적 에 대한 미래 수요 예측은 특히 중요하지만, 현재 LNG 시장은 과잉생 산과 낮은 가격 수준에 처해 있다. 셋째, 2014년 러시아의 크리미아 합 병 이후 미국과 EU의 러시아에 대한 제재 조치는 유전 가스전 개발과 관련된 기술이전에 중대한 악영향을 미쳤다. 이렇게 러시아 북극의 향후 석유 및 가스 개발은 경제적 관점에서 볼 때 매우 불확실하다. 그러나 그것은 또한 러시아 경제 및 안보 정책과도 관련이 있으므로 더 큰 맥락에서 염두에 두어야 할 필요가 있다. 어쨌든 러시아는 북극의 석유 및 가스 개발을 계속 재정립해 나갈 것이다.
Abstract
U.S. Geological Survey, (2008) “Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle”, which only counted undiscovered reserves and those accessible with current technology, showed again the importance of Arctic resources when it found that 25% of the world’s hydrocarbon resources lie beneath Arctic ice. Russia is the largest Arctic state with more than half of the Arctic coastline. Potential hydrocarbon resources in Russia’s continental shelf (offshore Arctic) are preliminarily estimated 90 billion tons of coal equivalent, 60 tons of which are concentrated in the Barents and Kara Seas. The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020 clearly claims Russia’s economic interests in the Arctic, aimed at establishing the Russian Arctic region as Russia’s “top strategic resource base” by 2020. The development of the Russian Arctic oil and gas is clearly perceived by Russian government as crucial for the growth of the national economy and the security at large. However, the oil and gas development in the Russian Arctic continental shelf has been constrained by several factors. First, according to experts, the oil and gas development of the Russian Arctic will be remain unprofitable until international oil prices rise more than $100 per barrel. Second, when assessing the oil and gas development of the Russian Arctic, the projections of future demand for LNG shipments is important. Currently, however, LNG markets have been subject to overproduction and low price levels. Third, following the Russian merger of Crimea in 2014, the United States and the EU's sanctions against Russia have had significant negative impacts on the transfer of technologies related to oil and gas field development. As we have seen so far, the future oil and gas developments in the Russian Arctic are quite uncertain from an economic perspective. They are, however, also related to Russian economic and security policy, and therefore need to be regarded with that larger context. In any case Russia will continue to go way over much of Arctic oil and gas development.
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