지킬 박사와 하이드: 통화정책 준칙을 강조하는 자유주의자 프리드만 대 양적완화와 ‘대마불사’ 구제금융 옹호자 프리드만
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde: Friedman, a Liberal Who Emphasizes Monetary Policy Rule vs. Friedman, a Defender of Quantitative Easing and ‘Too Big to Fail’ Bailout
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초록
이 논문은 프리드만의 자유주의 사상 및 통화주의 이론과 연준의 대공황 및 금융위기 대응 정책에 대한 프리드만의 평가 사이에 존재하는 비정합성을 확인하는 작업이다. 자유주의자 프리드만은 정부와 중앙은행의 정책 수행에 있어 준칙과 법치를 강조하고 있다. 또한 미국 화폐역사 연구의 권위자 프리드만은 대공황 분석에 있어 금융시장의 내재적 불안정성이라는 시장실패보다는 중앙은행의 정책 실패라는 정부실패를 강조하고 있다. 프리드만의 자유주의 사상과 통화이론은 통화정책의 준칙을 강조하지만 프리드만의 대공황 분석은 연준의 소극적 정책에 대한 비판과 함께 과감한 정책 미수행에 대한 탄식으로 채워져 있으며, 대공황과 이후 금융위기에 대한 연준 정책 평가에 있어서도 프리드만은 구제금융의 일관적인 원칙을 강조하기보다는 대형 금융기관 파산이 금융시스템 전체에 미칠 효과를 우선적으로 고려하고 있다. 금융위기 상황에서 적극적인 통화정책을 제안하고 구제금융의 일관적인원칙을 포기하는 프리드만의 비자유주의적 정책 제안은 준칙에 의한 통화정책이 자유 사회의 기둥이라는 프리드만의 자유주의 사상에 부합하지 않음을 살펴보는 작업이다.
Abstract
This paper is a work to confirm the inconsistency that exists between Friedman’s liberal ideas/monetarism and his assessment of the Federal Reserve’s policy response to the Great Depression and other financial crises. Milton Friedman, as a libertarian, emphasizes the rules and laws in the implementation of policies. He, as an authority on US monetary history, focuses on government failure rather than market failure when analyzing the Great Depression. Contrary to Friedman’s emphasis on monetary policy rules, his analysis of the Great Depression is filled with criticism of the Federal Reserve’s passive policies and laments about its failure to implement active policies. In evaluating the Fed’s bailout policy for the Great Depression and the subsequent financial crises, Friedman prioritizes the effects of large financial institution’s bankruptcies on the entire financial system rather than emphasizing the consistent principles of bailouts. This paper examines whether Friedman’s monetary and bailout policy is in the line with Friedman’s liberal idea that monetary policy rule is a pillar of a free society.
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