EU‐ASEAN Proposed FTA: Implications for Bangladesh
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Various ASEAN member states including Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand are negotiating bilateral Free Trade Agreement(FTAs) with the EU. Recently, Myanmar has received EBA from the EU. Most of the ASEAN countries are main competitors of Bangladesh in the EU market. The main objective of the study is to investigate the potential economic impacts on Bangladesh of the proposed EU‐ASEAN free trade agreement. In this context, a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) analysis has been developed by using the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP) model and database to explore the aggregate impact of the proposed FTA. The CGE analysis evinces that if EU‐ASEAN signs FTA, Bangladesh would experience a fall in real GDP of 0.13 per cent and welfare losses would be USD 22 million. Bangladesh’s export could also fall by about 0.16 percent to the EU market. This study also shows that if the EU and Vietnam sign an FTA, Bangladesh’s exports to the EU are expected to drop by about 0.04 per cent and the welfare loss equals USD 5 million. Bangladesh would experience a fall in real GDP by 0.03 per due to sharp deterioration of terms of trade. This suggests that if EU‐ASEAN signs an FTA, Bangladesh will face formidable market access difficulties in the EU.
Abstract
Various ASEAN member states including Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand are negotiating bilateral Free Trade Agreement(FTAs) with the EU. Recently, Myanmar has received EBA from the EU. Most of the ASEAN countries are main competitors of Bangladesh in the EU market. The main objective of the study is to investigate the potential economic impacts on Bangladesh of the proposed EU‐ASEAN free trade agreement. In this context, a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) analysis has been developed by using the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP) model and database to explore the aggregate impact of the proposed FTA. The CGE analysis evinces that if EU‐ASEAN signs FTA, Bangladesh would experience a fall in real GDP of 0.13 per cent and welfare losses would be USD 22 million. Bangladesh’s export could also fall by about 0.16 percent to the EU market. This study also shows that if the EU and Vietnam sign an FTA, Bangladesh’s exports to the EU are expected to drop by about 0.04 per cent and the welfare loss equals USD 5 million. Bangladesh would experience a fall in real GDP by 0.03 per due to sharp deterioration of terms of trade. This suggests that if EU‐ASEAN signs an FTA, Bangladesh will face formidable market access difficulties in the EU.
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