인구집단별 비정규직 비중과 코로나19 위기 중 고용 증가율 간 관계: 이중 차분 사건 연구 방법론을 이용한 고빈도 분석
The Association Between the Share of Non-Regular Employment and the Decline in Employment During the COVID-19 Pandemic Across Population Groups in South Korea: A High-Frequency Investigation Using a Difference-in-Differences Event Study Analysis
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초록
우리나라 노동시장의 중요한 특징 중 하나는 경제 충격에 따른 고용 조정 속도와 규모가 정규직과 비정규직 간에 매우 다르다는 것이다. 코로나19 확산의 영향도 정규직과 비정규직 간에 상이하게 파급되었을 가능성이 크지만, 그러한 예상을 뒷받침하는 실증 연구는 부족했다. 비정규직 고용 규모 측정을 위한 공식 통계 자료가 연 단위로만 집계되어 월 단위 고빈도 분석에 직접 활용되기 어렵기 때문이다. 본 연구는 「경제활동인구조사」 자료와 「경제활동인구조사 근로형태별 부가조사」 자료를 연계하여 인구집단 단위 패널 자료를 구축하였고, 이중 차분 사건 연구 모형을 이용하여 코로나19 위기 전 비정규직 비중과 코로나19 위기 발생 후 전년 동월 대비 고용 증가율 간의 관계를 추정하였다. 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 비정규직 비중이 높은 집단일수록 2020년 3～4월과 2021년 1월에 전년 동월 대비 고용 증가율이 큰 폭으로 감소했다. 둘째, 노동시간 증가율도 유사한 시점에 비정규직 비중이 높은 집단에서 큰 폭으로 감소했다. 셋째, 코로나19 위기 중 비정규직을 중심으로 일시휴직자가 급증했다는 증거는 발견되지 않았다. 본 연구의 결과는 코로나19 감염 확산이 노동시장에 큰 충격을 줄 때마다 정규직보다 비정규직의 고용과 노동시간이 큰 폭으로 빠르게 조정되었을 가능성이 높음을 보여주며, 횡단면 자료와 연 단위 집계 자료로는 파악하기 어려운 고빈도 정보를 제공한다는 점에서 의의가 있다. 본 연구에서 발견한 코로나19 위기 중 고용 변동 특징은 정규직과 비정규직 간 조정 비용 차이를 고려한 노동수요 모형의 이론적 예상 및 과거 경제위기의 정형적 패턴과 일치하며, 고용형태 간 고용 조정 폭과 속도 차이를 고려한 정책 대응 필요성을 제기한다.
Abstract
One of the important characteristics of the Korean labor market is that the speed and scale of employment adjustments in response to economic shocks are very different between regular and non-regular workers. Using difference-in-differences event study regressions, we estimate the relationship between the proportion of non-regular workers before the COVID-19 pandemic and the employment growth rate during the pandemic within demographic groups defined by gender, age, and education. The results can be summarized as follows. First, in the groups with a high proportion of non-regular workers, the employment growth rate fell sharply in March-April 2020 and January 2021. Second, in those groups, the growth rate of working hours also decreased significantly at similar times. Third, no evidence was found that furloughs increased relatively rapidly in the groups with a high proportion of non-regular workers. The results of this study show that the employment and working hours of non-regular workers were adjusted faster than regular workers whenever the spread of COVID-19 infections had a significant impact on the Korean labor market. The patterns of employment fluctuations during the COVID-19 crisis found in this study are consistent with the theoretical predictions of the labor demand model emphasizing the differences in adjustment costs and firm-specific skills between regular and non-regular workers. The results of this study provide policy implications that it is necessary to strengthen employment stability, prompt re-employment support, and livelihood support policies for non-regular workers.
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